Black Ball Sports

The NFL is humming right along, hitting week 4, and teams are starting to get their bye weeks.  Before we get into the picks, I’ve got a few thoughts.

• Vince Young - Something about the past two years with Vince is bothering me.  He just seems like he’s really stressed about something off the field.  Almost like he’s just not comfortable in the spotlight and being who he is.  Put his recent behavior, together with the infamous drunk dancing with shirtless guys and you start wondering what is really going on.  And I won’t even bring up the fact he sells sausage. I’m not saying anything else.
• Trouble in Pittsburgh - I was a bit surprised the Philadelphia Eagles beat on the Pittsburgh Steelers the way they did.  They out physicalled and pushed around a usually bully like team.  Not to mention, they came out of the game with more injuries to Ben Roethlisberger who was beat silly, and Willie Parker may miss two weeks.  So who do they get this week?  The kings of nasty, Baltimore Ravens.  Not a good thing, considering nothing kills a season faster than injuries.
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The NFL is off to an amazing start.  The number of interesting stories, trends and moments is tremendous.  I don’t even know if I could sufficiently sum up the stories.

• The Titans are moving on without Vince Young - They’ve handled him poorly, and it is clear he’s emotionally fragile.  This doesn’t look good for the franchise or Young.  Boy, Young and Matt Leinhart must miss college.
• Vikings turn the page on Tarvaris Jackson - They needed to do this, but I think after spending all this time grooming, defending and verbally supporting the guy, isn’t it a bit late to turn to of all people Gus Ferrotte?  Nonetheless, they will play better.
• Patriots moving on without Tom Brady - The Patriots surprised me not by winning, but by quickly regrouping to commit themselves to the old Patriot ways of defense first.   Not they need to sustain it.
• Rookies hitting the mark - Despite playing for the worst managed team in professional sports, Darren McFadden is trying to become to the Raiders what Adrian Peterson was to the Vikings last year.   Not to be outdone are the mini-WRs, Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson.  It’s only been two weeks of course, but both of them are performing well above expectations.  Can they keep it up?  Unlikely, but the fact that they both are being trusted by their quarterbacks and coaching staffs can’t be dismissed.
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Week 1 matters little in the grand scheme of things.  With pre-season being nothing more than dress rehearsal, some teams just aren’t ready for the season.  However, confidence can be built in the first week.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Dallas, Denver, New York Jets, Green Bay and Chicago are immediately brimming with it.  They were able to come out of the gates firing.  For Atlanta, this just might help establish their coach and quarterbacks as leaders.  For the other teams mentioned, this could be the spring board to a fine season.

On the flipside, for teams like New England, Jacksonville, San Diego, Cleveland and Cincinnati week one was a kick to the nether regions.  Injuries, poor play and blowouts leave the teams shaken for confidence.  The Patriots need to suddenly dial back the clock to a few years ago, when they won by controlling the clock, tremendous defense and timely passing.  Can they do that on the fly?  Not sure, we’ll see.  I’m not of the mindset that they are going to collapse.  I can see season long problems in Jacksonville and Cleveland.  The Browns I thought were a fraud, and have a really tough schedule this season, while Jacksonville has too many line troubles to overcome mid-season.

So how will teams react to their situations in week 2?  For Philly and Dallas, a win here can propel the winner to a fantastic start.  Sure, the loser should recover, but the confidence of the winner will carry them throughout the first half of the season.

Here’s how we see it for week 2:

Indianapolis at Minnesota

Kali: Forte ran wild against the Colts last week, so I expect the same from Adrian Peterson. And Minnesota was in the game at Green Bay. Pick: Minnesota

Antonio: Indianapolis is in trouble.  AP might go for 200. Pick: Minnesota

New England at New York Jets

Kali: I expect the Patriots to play well without Brady. But even Brady had problems against the Jets defense and Cassell gets his first start on the road. Pick: New York Bretts

Antonio: Ain’t happening.  I think the Patriots will respond quickly to the loss of Brady.  Will they look good this week? No.  But they are going to play with a chip on their shoulder, and thats when the Patriots have always been at their best.  Pick: New England Cassells

NY Giants at St. Louis

Antonio: It is fantastic that the NFL has allowed it’s teams to schedule college teams.  I think the St. Louis Billikens will keep it close for about 2 minutes.  Pick: NY Giants

Kali: The Rams looked like a team that couldn’t win the ACC last week. And the Giants are in the NFC East. Case closed. Pick: NY Giants

New Orleans at Washington:

Kali: Redskins have looked terrible, especially on offense the last 3 weeks. And the Saints look like they realized the best way to use Reggie Bush. So probably a Saints blowout, but going with my heart. Pick: Washington

Antonio: Your heart is lying.  I don’t think Washington will get blown out.  But the Saints will just have too much for the Redskins.  They need only score 17 points.  Even against the Saints suspect defense, the Redskins just don’t have it together yet.  Pick: Saints

San Diego at Denver:

Antonio: Maybe more teams need to check their young QBs for diabetes.  All kidding aside, Jay Cutler looks more physically ready to play, and gets back his favorite target from last year, Brandon Marshall.  San Diego, you are officially in trouble.  Pick: Denver

Kali: Cutler looks like the best QB to come out of these last couple of draft classes. I like the way the Denver defense flies around. And I’m still not a believer in Norv Turner. Pick: Denver

Philadelphia at Dallas:

Antonio: Amazing that is week two and there is this great a matchup.  I’m split on this one.  But I’ve had a feeling about the Eagles, and last week did nothing to change that feeling.  They just seem ready to explode on the league. Remember the pickle juice game in 2000, when the Andy Reid Eagles had their coming out party?  I’m just saying… Pick: Philadelphia

Kali: Was Philly that good or their opponent that bad? I think a healthy McNabb makes them that good. And Romo won’t have 15 minutes to find a receiver this week against Jim Johnson. Pick: Philadelphia

As football season begins and people begin to get excited about their teams and trash talking other teams, some rules need to be established. As a Redskins fan whose team got embarrassed last Thursday night I’ve already experienced some extreme trash talking. But hey that’s the rules of the life that I’ve chosen. And I talk trash with the best of them, but they are those who need to understand the rules of the game.

#1 - If you talk before and during the game you must talk after the game win or lose - I have a friend, who will rename nameless, who is a huge Giants fan, and ever since the opening game between the Giants an Redskins was announced this summer we’ve been going at it. All game this past Thursday we were going at it back and forth. And when the game ended and they had thoroughly dominated us, he called. I answered the phone and took all the beating that I deserved. He then called again 3 times the next day and that doesn’t even include the numerous texts I received. But I was disappointed when he said I was the only Redskins fan that was answering the phone. That is ridiculous on the part of the Redskins fans he knows. If you give it you have to take it as well. Answer your phone take it like a MAN and get it over with. What you going to be scared to answer your phone???

#2 - You can’t talk trash to someone only after the final score. - While I took it from my friend who had been talking trash the whole game, I refuse to talk with the trash talker sniper. A Giants fan I know sent me a text after the game talking trash. Like I said earlier I will take the trash talking but don’t be a punk and only say stuff when the game is over. Real MEN talk the whole game. Any WOMEN can call and say stuff after the game is over.

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If you haven’t seen the end of the BYU vs. Washington game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q96NNj0xpE

Washington had an amazing 2-minute drive to score what should have been a game tying touchdown. But the Washington player who scored celebrated by throwing the ball over his head. No one from BYU even thought about it or felt like it was taunting. But incredibly the referees threw a flag for excessive celebrating. So instead of being able to kick a normal PAT to tie the game they got penalized 15 yards and the kick was blocked.

If u watch the replay of the so-called “excessive” celebration you see the Washington player just reacted. This wasn’t a planned or orchestrated celebration.  He just threw the ball over his head in excitement. He didn’t throw the ball near an opponent or gesture towards an opponent. The call made by the referee CAN’T be made at that time of the game. This call affected the outcome of the game and took the game out of the hands of the players. That call should never be made, but definitely not when the game is on the line. People are saying that the refs have to make the call because it is in the rule book. I say that is garbage. A lot of calls are subjective. You could call holding on every play of the game, but you don’t make the call unless an advantage is gained. The refs always have discretion on whether to make a call or not. Yes it is the rule, but a lot of rules are open to interpretation.

This was the most outrageous call of the NCAA new celebration rule, but I also saw a call where a QB threw a touchdown and ran down and celebrated with the receiver he threw the pass to. This was flagged for the celebration rule. All we hear about on ESPN and other football networks is about how coaches are great at firing up their players. Or they replay some of the great speeches given to inspire the team. Every Saturday ESPN has a segment where Lou Holtz supposedly gives a “pep talk” to teams that are playing that day. So the coaches are credited with building up the emotional energy of their players. And players are required to play with energy and emotion. So they come running out the tunnel fired up and the fans are screaming and yelling, and they’re supposed to score a touchdown and show no emotion. The player is supposed to play with emotion all the way down field, but as soon as they cross the goal line cut the emotion off immediately. How is it possible to build up emotion to a boiling point and then cut it off like a faucet.

And what is the point of this rule? A player taunting another player I understand throwing a flag, because you don’t want that to lead to a confrontation. But basic non-orchestrated in the moment celebrations is what the game of football is about.

Beverly Hills, 90210 or Philadelphia, 19415

The drama continues in Philadelphia, despite the fact that they have a legitimate shot at going deep into the playoffs. Lito Sheppherd has continued his “I’m underpaid, I should start, me me me” ranting this week. He continues to walk a fine line between looking out for himself and dissing his own teammates. See this post from the Eagletarian. Sheppherd is a fine player who has been hurt, off and on. He’s paid fairly well, just not as well as Assante Samuel. This is the week, when players get off their demands, and start playing football again. Lito, get over it, have a great season, and then watch the money pile up, which is basically what Brian Westbrook did and he was rewarded for it.

Is it too late to pull back my picks?

I hate to be one of several picking a particular team, because that inevitably means that team is doomed. And in this case it happens to be my favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles. Apparently Gene Wojciechowski, Dr. Z, and Tom Curran all think the Eagles will at least make the Superbowl. Not to mention several other writers who think they can make the NFC Championship game and that DeSean Jackson is Devin Hester and Steve Smith all in one. Scares me. On the flip side, I think I’m the only one who likes Pittsburgh to make the Superbowl. I like being out on that island.

Terrance Newman - screaming Cowboy

Little advice, if you’ve never been on a roller coaster, don’t let them video tape your first time. You’ll just sound crazy screaming and praying. Check out the Video.

If Dante Culpepper Retires Does Anyone Care?

I wrote before that he’s way to talented a QB to not be playing somewhere, and based on this post by Kevin Seifert, apparently Culpepper believed his own hype. See this is what happens when you have too much confidence and ego. He needed to break his game down and start over in many ways, maybe start fresh as a backup to an injury prone/bad performing starter. Instead, he labored on about wanting a fair chance to start. He needed to prove himself over again, and didn’t seem to believe that.

LPGA - Does that stand for dumbest sports organization?

Did they seriously believe that they were going to get away with forcing English in an international sport? I hope this was just a publicity stunt to get the media to talk about women’s golf.

Chalmers and Arthur - Dumb and Dumber

So let me get this straight, the two of you are in the NBA’s rookie program, being warned about the dangers of being a young, rich baller and how to carry yourself on and off the court; yet, you manage to get two women into your room, set off a fire alarm, flush your pot and get David Stern so ticked off he kicks you out? Wow, at least your professional idiots, it took a couple of years for Sebastian Telfair to get Stern that mad. I don’t know how Stern hasn’t had a heart attack as NBA commisioner, he’s dealt with gambling scandals, fights in the stands, weapons violations, a sexual harassment lawsuit against a hall of famer and GM, and these two dumbbells can’t last four measly days without women and weed? Great career move, see how long it’s going to take to wash this stench off yourselves.

Do Better Syracuse

I’m a Syracuse football fan, I admit it. But I gotta say, you stink. And not even in that Notre Dame down years stink, or that South Carolina can’t quite figure it out stink, or that over the hill head coach Penn State stink. No, ‘Cuse you are going down Temple style. There seems to be zero hope, when you can’t even put together a reasonable effort at Northwestern. And now you are being compared to a New Kids on the Block song? Look at the programs on that list, they are all generally speaking lower tier programs anyway. But Syracuse is the only “big” team on the list. Syracuse has a rich tradition of quality football, but since Donovan McNabb graduated, it’s gone steadily downhill. Greg Robinson needs to go, he’s getting whipped in recruiting by Greg Schiano at Rutgers of all places. The northeast clearly doesn’t have the football talent as other regions, and it is difficult to recruit to the cold north, but this is pathetic. I don’t really expect the Orange to play on the level of the top SEC teams, USC, Ohio State, Texas etc. But can you play on Rutgers or Connecticut’s level? Can you get into the Black Ball Sports.com Bowl? I think we can get a field somewhere and you can square off against a Newark, NJ team, but we’ll take you only if you have a minimal 3 victories this season. My guess is you won’t make it, and we’ll just cut our losses and sponsor an electronic football matchup.

And your uniforms are ugly.

The NFC is harder to figure because there are so many teams which seem to be very close in talent.  We learned from last season, that getting hot heading into the playoffs can be more important than a great record and home field advantage.  Will we see another New York Giants like run this year?  I doubt it.  That was very unlikely, even in the parity drive league.  That being said, the change at quarterback in Green Bay is the most significant change in the NFC.  They’d likely be the favorites if Brett Farve was still there.  The Packers are talented at every position, and really the only questions they have is Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Grant’s health.  Those are significant enough though, that I think they will be in a dog fight with Minnesota for the division and the potential wildcard teams, Dallas, Philadelphia, New York, Tampa Bay and Carolina.  The West is easy, it is Seattle’s to lose.  The other teams are terrible, if USC was in the division, they’d place 2nd.  The South is tricky, because the division since it’s inception in 2002 has never had the same winner in consecutive years.  And I’m sorry to those who believe in Jeff Garcia, it isn’t happening this year either.  I pick the New Orleans Saints to capture the division.  The North I think will go to Minnesota in a tight one.

That leaves the NFC East, the toughest and deepest division in football.  My heart says Philly is prime to do it, and my head says don’t think with your heart, the Cowboys should repeat.  I’m going with Philly, based on the fact that they’ve won the division 5 out of the past 7 years, and with a healthy Donovan McNabb, they are probably more talented then they’ve been since 2004.  Their return game with DeSean Jackson and Quintin Demps returned 2 tds in the preseason, which was two more than their defense and special teams had all last season.  I don’t think the Eagles will be good enough to run away with the division and secure homefield advantage though.  Where does that leave some really good teams in New York, Dallas and potentially Washington?  I think only one of them can grab a wildcard slot, based on the fact there are some really bad teams in other divisions which will allow a team like Green Bay to secure as many as 4 easy divisional wins.  I’m going to go with Dallas, although I don’t like Tony Romo or Wade Phillips (he’ll be gone after this season).  I don’t think New York was a fluke; I’ve always felt watching Eli Manning play, that while he was sporadic, he had the heart to fight through anything.  However, the loss of Osi and Michael Strahan is going to be difficult to overcome, based on the fact their secondary is ordinary at best, and their system is predicated on Quarterback pressure.   I think they’ll stay in the race to the end but fall out in the end.

Here’s my picks for the NFC, with the playoff round they’ll reach in the parentheses.

NFC North

1. Minnesota (Divisional Round)
2. Green Bay (Divisional Round)
3. Detroit
4. Chicago

NFC South

1. New Orleans (Wildcard)
2. Carolina
3. Tampa Bay
4. Atlanta

NFC West

1. Seattle (NFC Championship)
2. USC St. Louis
3. Notre Dame Arizona
4. Syracuse San Francisco

NFC East

1. Philadelphia (NFC Championship, Superbowl)
2. Dallas (Wildcard)
3. New York
4. Washington

Dallas is going to have another quick playoff exit to Philadelphia, sorry can’t get on the Romo-Philips bandwagon until they accomplish something.  The Packers are better defensively than the Saints may ever be, so they’ll upset them in the dome.  Minnesota will have a bye but fall to coach Brad Childress’ former boss Andy Reid.  Seattle and Mike Holmgren will relish the opportunity to put a whipping on Farve’s replacement Aaron Rodgers.  Since I like Pittsburgh to reach the Superbowl, and am not ready to see a repeat of their matchup, I’m going to take Philadelphia over Seattle.

Philadelphia is your Superbowl winner.  Yes, I’m a homer, but I think they have a talented team, with several hungry, veterans who have been through playoff wars.  Brian Dawkins, Brian Westbrook, McNabb, John Runyan, Tra Thomas etc, have been through this all before, and unless that group (primarily McNabb and Westbrook) is unable to remain healthy, they will be able to break through this year.  Either that or I’m flat out wrong on everything, and the Patriots will win it all.

The AFC seems to be the stronger of the two conferences, however, a closer look reveals major questions for all the big teams.  New England faces possible defensive troubles as they replace free agent losses and are getting older quickly.  The offense however, should still permit them to cruise.  San Diego still has the problem of Norv Turner.  He’s had little playoff success as a head coach, and I wonder if he’ll ever break through.  They are too talented not to win the West, but they need to step it up, starting with Philip Rivers.  I expect a big year from Pittburgh.  Now in the second year with Coach Mike Tomlin, I can see this team going far.  Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes are becoming a great tandem, and this spells trouble for the overrated Cleveland Browns.  Jacksonville and Indianapolis will again dance for the division supremacy, but with Tennessee also in the division, I think both teams will struggle to break away and get home field advantage necessary to go deep.  Here’s my picks for the AFC, with the playoff round they’ll reach in the parentheses.

AFC East

1. New England (Divisional Round)
2. New York Jets (Wildcard Round)
3. Buffalo
4. Miami

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh (Superbowl)
2. Cincinnati
3. Cleveland
4. Baltimore

AFC South

1. Jacksonville (Championship Game)
2. Indianapolis (Divisional Round)
3. Tennessee
4. Houston

AFC West

1. San Diego (Wildcard Round)
2. Denver
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City

So I have San Diego and New York losing Wildcard weekend to Indianapolis and New England.  I just still can’t trust Philips and Turner, and I fully expect that Shawn Merriman will go down this year.  Pats and Colts falling to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh in divisional round.  I think the Patriots defense will not hold up, any injuries throughout the year they will struggle to replace, and once the playoffs hit, it’ll be tough to overcome.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh are my picks for the AFC Championship, and I can see this one going either way.  I give the nod to Pittsburgh at this point, because I believe with the weak division they are in, they’ll have home field advantage.