Oct 10 2008
Week 6
Sorry, we were both apparently on hiatus last week so there was no post and picks. I was in Canada, and I believe Kali was attempting to write in support for blackballsports.com into the Bailout package.
The NFL is past the quarter mark, which means panic has set in regarding several teams with aspirations including Philadelphia, Green Bay, Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and San Diego. All these teams are at or below .500 with serious questions.
- Philadelphia continues to struggle with injuries, as Brian Westbrook and Shawn Andrews have been ruled out for this weekend. The offense has clearly not been the same since these two were hurt. Since they were both hurt, the Eagles have scored 15, 20, and 17 points. The big issue here, is they should be able to overcome these type losses. Every team in the league suffers injuries, and other than QB, each team should be able to somewhat compensate for attrition. If Westbrook doesn’t get healthy quickly, write this team off, as they are in a brutal division and won’t sniff the playoffs playing .500 ball.
- Aaron Rodgers has generally played well for the Packers, and Greg Jennings has the best WR numbers in the league, yet the team has lost 3 straight, with the last one being to Atlanta at home. The Brett Farve lovers will unfairly point the finger at Rodgers. But the bottom line is they haven’t stopped the run 176 yards vs. Atlanta, 178 vs Tampa and 217 against Dallas. They’ll get this sewed up and play in a weaker division, so I expect them to bounce back.
- Shaun Alexander must have left some of his gimpy knees in Seattle. They are immensely banged up, and seem completely incapable of winning against an NFL team (wins vs. St. Louis don’t count). This is just one of those years where nothing the team or coach can do is going to stop the bleeding. It’s best for the franchise to finish about 3-13 and get either a new QB or RB in next years draft.
- Jacksonville and Indianapolis are in the same boat, but not the one we’d thought they’d be at the beginning of the year. Neither team has particularly done anything this year. It almost seems like they are stuck in mud. They’ve had injuries sure, but these teams were true contenders last year, and now they can’t seem to do anything right. Just think Indianapolis was down 17 points at home to Houston with 8 minutes left, only a complete meltdown by Houston’s Sage Rosenfels kept them from falling to 1-3. The Jaguars are a running team, and this year they have averaged barely 100 yards a game. Throw out the game against Indy, and they’ve averaged less than 80 per game. Indy will figure it out, Jacksonville won’t.
- San Diego for the second straight year has stumbled out of the gate. Last year they rebounded to finish 11-5 and make it to the AFC Championship game. It’s not happening this year. I have a feeling Ladanian Tomlinson is finally going to have an off year after years of consistency and mass touches. In his eighth season he’s up to nearly 3,000 touches and 15,000 total yards. That is a remarkable amount of work, and realize he’s now almost 30, the NFL running back death sentence.
Coaching Matters
All sports generally come down to talent, and the NFL is no different. The physically most talented teams usually compete for the playoffs. However, the main difference between teams with talent that win Superbowls and those who don’t is simply coaching. Bill Belichek, love him or hate him ( I hate him), is one of the best coaches the NFL has ever seen. I mainly consider him as such because he has great video scouting skills. Seriously, he manages to patch together his talent on the field unlike anyone else. He’ll throw a tackle out as TE, use a RB off the street and produce, switch a WR to a corner, safety to a linebacker and a golf pro to videographer. He’s 3-1 this year with a QB who hadn’t started since high school.
Meanwhile, Andy Reid, Marty Schottenheimer, Wade Phillips and Norv Turner have continued to be blessed with talented rosters and only seem to manage to win regular season games. And when they do win playoff games against teams, they are usually against teams which don’t have the talent or testicular fortitude to win. A few years ago, Tom Coughlin and Tony Dungy would have been on this list too, but they managed to break through. And the main reason, I believe so, is they made changes. Dungy finally got the defense to cooperate with the offense at least long enough for a deep run to a championship, and Coughlin finally gave his team a chance to grow as he apparently became more communicative with his players and it also paid off in a championship. Did Dungy and Coughlin just happen to be in the right place at the right time? Sure, there is always a measure of luck and randomness which helps a team succeed. But the reality is those two managed to put it all together. I have no faith anymore in Reid and so to me, he gets dumped into the “good coaches, bad winners” category.
Picks
Last week (for us, week 4), we were both 2-3. Overall, Antonio 10-7, Kali 8-9.
Chicago at Atlanta
Antonio: The Falcons have some real mojo going on. I have no clue how they’ve done it so far, but it is working. Michael Turner has been very good, and now they are in the dome. There is a bit of fear they could struggle to run against Chicago, but I think they continue to play well, and pull this one out late.
Pick: Falcons
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Kali: The Colts could easily be 0-4. They have been given 2 wins late. This will be a close one, but I still think Peyton will make the plays late over Flacco.
Pick: Colts
New England at San Diego
Antonio: The Chargers have to be able to win here right. At home, primetime against their most hated rival. Matt Cassell had a very good game last week, and finally found Randy Moss. The Chargers are due to beat the Patriots, and feel like they owe them a whipping because the Patriots possibly cheated against them in the past. Which means only one thing…
Pick: Bill Belichek and his smug little grin
Jacksonville at Denver
Kali: Denver’s weakness is still their defense. But right now the Jags don’t have the offense to take advantage of that. And their defense is slipping as well, and Jay Cutler and those receivers aren’t going to allow them to stop the slide.
Pick: Denver
St. Louis at Washington
Antonio: I really want to see Washington lose to the Washington State Cougers, but the reality is the Redskins will be in games due to the ball control offense they’ve bought into. Which basically means, they won’t turn the ball over the 30 times that the Cougers would need to even score 10 points.
Pick: Washington
Kali: As a fan of the Skins I can say I’ve been shocked at the physical domination we exhibited on the road against Philly and Dallas. The quick beautiful marriage between Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn has been amazing. This game scares me because of the letdown theory.
Pick: Washington
Philadelphia at San Francisco
Kali: I don’t like the whining of McNabb this week. And I don’t like Westbrook being out with broken ribs. But I hate the San Fran coach in a dress shirt and tie on the sideline.
Pick: Philadelphia
Antonio: The Eagles will likely go on a run this season since they have some easy ones on the schedule, and then manage to break the Eagles fans hearts once again, with Donovan McNabb still declaring a) we are still a good team b) we are still better than everyone we’ve played and c) we still need weapons…only one of those responses is true. On the bright side, I got a feeling the Phillies are gonna pull it off.
Pick: Eagles
New York Giants at Cleveland
Antonio: I’d maybe think the Giants would be looking past teams, seeing as they’ve been so good. But the way they whipped up on a terrible Seattle team, gives me the impression they are taking each game very serioiusly. Plaxico is back from his suspension, and they’ll go him early and often.
Pick: NY Giants
Kali: This has the making of a tough year for Black Coaches. I’m not sure how many will be left after the season. The Giants will be hated by Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, because they ain’t going to do nothing on Monday night to keep a Black coach employed.
Pick: NY Giants
Dallas at Arizona
Kali: The Redskins exposed a way to defend the Cowboys. Take TO out and let everyone else do well, but it doesn’t matter because TO is still crying and bringing the team down. But Arizona is not capable this week. But I’ll be praying for it anyway.
Pick: Dallas
Antonio: Call me stupid, but I actually am buying the Cardinals a bit this year. They are playing little defense which isn’t a shock, but Kurt Warner has been lights out (minus the 85 turnover quarter against the Jets). So either they will win in a shootout, or the Cowboys will finally find TO again (he hasn’t been the leading receiver in any game this season).
Pick: Arizona
BTW: Pacman Jones should be suspended permanently for punching his own bodyguard, while the bodyguard was urinating. Talk about a cheap shot, consider that Carmello Anthony got 25 games for a cheap shot where at least there was a pseudo brawl ensuing. Pacman is an idiot, and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t get suspended at some point this year.
