Black Ball Sports

I can’t get over how many teams last week lost games which either would have put them in the playoffs or set them up for a win and their in scenario this weekend.

• Dallas – Sure Tony Romo wasn’t very good, but TD runs of 77 and 82 yards in crunch time?  Wade Philips took control of the defense so this falls on his shoulders.   They still have a chance thanks to…
• Philly – Donovan McNabb, like Romo, didn’t have a great game, but with a minute left and a chance to tie, he threw a perfect ball to the corner of the end zone and it was dropped by DeSean Jackson.  The Eagles receivers dropped balls all day, and despite a very good defensive effort, the Eagles are basically done.  At least if one team actually shows up this week…
• Tampa Bay - Ok, they played a hot San Diego team.  But they were at home, with the Chargers making the West to East trip which has proved so tough for West Coast teams this year.  That being said, giving up 41 points at home, when you are supposed to be a notoriously tough defense is hard to swallow.  But it could be worse they could be…
• Denver – You are kidding right?  The Broncos had the playoffs well within reach, just beat Buffalo at home.  Nope, they again showed why no one can take them seriously.  But nobody choked worse than the…
• NY Jets - The Bretts are choking big time.  1-3 in their last four games with losses to San Francisco and Seattle?  Hard to believe but after starting 8-3 they could lose the division to Miami and Chad Pennington.  If that happens it would be very hard to justify Eric Mangini returning considering the investments of the past offseason.   Well at least Farve’s ironman streak survived another season.  Speaking of streaks….
• Detriot Lions - Wow.  Any chance they man up and win in Green Bay to avoid 0-16?  No way.  Pathetic.

Picks:

Last Week: Antonio 2-4, Kali 2-4
Overall: Antonio 46-37, Kali 46-37

New England at Buffalo:

Kali: Teams like Buffalo and Houston always amaze me.  At the end of the year when nothing matters they seem to get on these winning streaks.  So they end up anywhere from 7-9 to 9-7.  And their fans all off season think they have arrived or they’re picked by the experts as the teams on the rise.  Well, hopefully this beating they take from New England this weekend will put an end to that for at least Buffalo next year.
Pick:  New England

Antonio: Similar scenario to the Pats and Bills, one team trying to reach .500 the other team still in it.  The Texans have an explosive WR in Andre Johnson, and if not for playing for the perennial “they’ll be better this year” team, he might be recognized as the best receiver in the game.  I think he’ll show that today.
Pick: Houston

Antonio: Living in the general NY area, I’ve heard and learned enough about the Jets torturing their fan base by losing in big moments or teasing them with hope.  This season has been no different, and I think they will do it again, by winning this week.
Pick: J-E-T-S

Kali: Something tells me Favre is going to have a good game.  It could be his last game in New York and his last meaningful game.  And Miami even when they were great always had troubles playing in the Meadowlands.
Pick:  NY Jets

Kali: How can you pick Denver to beat San Diego after they lost to Buffalo at home with the playoffs on the line.  But who knows which San Diego team is going to show up.  I expect this to be a high scoring affair and think Phillip Rivers is going to make a couple more plays than Jay Cutler.
Pick:  San Diego

Antonio: Talk about pathetic.  San Diego could make the playoffs at 8-8, win a division nonetheless!  Neither team has played any reasonable sense of defense all year long.  But Denver does have a way of winning when you least expect them to, like trashing the Jets in NY last month.
Pick: Denver

Antonio: The Giants will be in this game, but at the same time, they’ll be resting players.  In the NFL bench players typically play quite a bit, so the drop off when starters aren’t in isn’t huge, but I figure Minnesota will have enough to hang on late.
Pick: Minnesota

Kali: I know everyone keeps referring to last year when the Giants turned their season around with the way they lost to New England in the last game of the year.  The difference is they needed to get some momentum at that point last year.  This year they got home field advantage throughout and some injured players.  I see a lot of those players making preseason type appearances.
Pick:  Minnesota

Kali: I just don’t believe in the Cowboys anymore.  They’re going to have to prove it to me.  I know Romo gets a lot of the blame, but more should fall on Jason Garrett.  They get down 7 points and he makes them completely one-dimensional.  And one-dimensional against a Jim Johnson blitzing defense is not the place to be.  Philly probably won’t have anything to play for by the time the game starts.  But the Philly crowd will make sure the players know they playing for something.
Pick:  Philadelphia

Antonio: I’m buying the conspiracy theory that the NFL hopes the Cowboys sneak in and are giving them a chance by setting up the Eagles to be in a depressed mode, knowing they’ve been eliminated.  Still, I have a feeling the Eagles will play well in this one.  They love playing Dallas, and they love a chance to shut TO up.  He beat them for two TDs earlier this season, so they owe him.
Pick: Philadelphia

Kali: Honestly, I have no feeling for this game.  The Redskins actually have played better on the road than home last year.  But are they really going to be ready to play after flying 3000 miles.  I’m not sure.
Pick:  Washington

Antonio: Because I HATE Redskins fans.
Pick: San Francisco

We’ve reached the point of the season where we can truly ignore the bad teams and most of the talk remains on the field.  This season there are so many scenarios left, with open playoff slots and seeding still to be determined, and it seems like every playoff contender is involved in big games versus other contenders or divisional rivals.   Week 17 already looks intense, and the NFL is on target for a ratings bonanza.  This is the time when we start looking at the hot teams, and wondering who can keep it going long enough to capture the championship,

• Cowboys….Everybody is back on the bandwagon again, except me.  Win a game in the playoffs and I’ll consider it.   Yes the Cowboys are playing better, since Tony Romo returned.  But the first 3 were against the Redskins, Seattle and San Francisco.  Teams they should have beaten.  They blew a 10 point lead against Pittsburgh in the fourth quarter.  They had a good win against the Giants.  But the Giants haven’t played well the past month.  They haven’t run well, there is no Burress to make a big play and suddenly they aren’t beating up QBs.   Are the Cowboys a Superbowl contender?  We’ll see….they have a chance to prove it with Baltimore at home, and on the road against Philly possibly for all the marbles.
• Eagles…speaking of Philly.   I’m not quite buying them either, and they are my team.  Why?  For similar reasons to the Cowboys, they aren’t beating anyone.   Yes, a three game winning streak with two wins against playoff teams, but Arizona doesn’t count.  I’m sorry, they just don’t count when you beat them at home, short week and they had to fly across country.  As for beating the Giants, good win….but I think the Giants have the markings of a physically and mentally exhausted team.  They’ve worn the bullseye all season, and they pulled a schedule this year which turned out to have 10 straight games against teams with winning records.  Are the Eagles capable of a run?  Definitely.  The talent is almost there, I’m still suspect of their defensive front seven.  But they have Brian Westbrook healthy and a driven and confident Donovan McNabb.  I don’t think it will happen, and I’m scared that like last year, they’ll get blinded by their late season play into believe they only need to “tweak” their roster.
• Minnesota…Of course they are now back to Tarvaris Jackson, which who knows how that will play out.  But they have a dynamic running back combo in Adrian Peterson (my MVP) and Chester Taylor, and a very good defense.  I believe if they win out, they can steal the number two seed and that will insure they are relatively healthy and have that huge dome advantage.
• Pittsburgh…They are red-hot defensively, and they have a shot at home field throughout, with a big game in Tennessee, who like the Giants seem a bit exhausted.    Mike Tomlin and Dick LaBeau have this team playing defense like the league hasn’t seen since Baltimore in 2000.
• Indianapolis… They have a big win streak, but still no running game.  That would fear me if they pull Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the playoffs at some point.  They don’t want to be one dimensional against blitzing teams, even if Peyton Manning is great against the blitz.  Anytime you have Manning, you have a chance to win games, but they need the balance Joseph Addai should be able to provide.
• Carolina…Everything hinges on keeping that running game with DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart.  Steve Smith might be the league’s most explosive individual, but playoff teams will be able to key on him, if that running game falls off.
• 16-0 team last season, 0-16 this season?  It is a distinct possibility.  Detroit is at home versus a Saints team, which fought hard last week to keep alive it’s playoff hopes.  Unfortunately for the Saints, they weren’t able to pull off the win, but I don’t think they will quit.  With a trip to Green Bay on the horizon, I really feel the Lions are going 16-0.  But don’t blame Calvin Johnson…with no QB consistency or quality all season long, he put up Pro-Bowl numbers.  He’s second in the NFL in receiving touchdowns for a team that averages only 17 points a game.
• Brady trade talk….Is anyone serious?  Let me just remind people who Tom Brady is…the guy who threw 50 tds last year, led them to a perfect 16-0, 3 rings, 2 Superbowl MVPs,a regular season MVP and more importantly the face of the franchise for the past 7-8 years.   Would he net a fortune? Sure.  Is there a chance that he might not ever be the same physically again? Absolutely.  Could Matt Cassel pulled a reasonable imitation of Brady? Doubtful.  If the Pats really thought he was that good, they’d have extended him to keep him from ever reaching free agency even before Brady got hurt.  All I have to say is Derek Anderson.  Last year he threw for 29 tds and everyone thought he was the real deal and Cleveland extended him.   How’s that working out?

Picks:

Last Week: Antonio 1-5, Kali 4-2
Overall: Antonio 44-33, Kali 44-33

Atlanta at Minnesota:

Antonio: The Vikings surprise everyone last week as they came out on fire in Arizona, but that isn’t the way the Vikings usually win.  Matt Ryan has been very effective all season for the Falcons, and he’ll need to be even better this week as the Vikings have the ability to take Michael Turner out of it.  The bigger problem for the Falcons is that they can’t stop the Vikings run offense.
Pick: Minnesota

Arizona at New England:

Kali: Arizona having a home playoff game goes back to an earlier post where I said bad division winners shouldn’t automatically get rewarded with home field advantage.  It is easily conceivable they could have lost 2 more games than the team that will come to their place for a first round playoff game.  And how did Brett Favre beat Matt Cassel out for the pro bowl?  And my favorite off season possibility, does Belichek trade Brady for a bunch of draft picks??
Pick:  New England

San Diego at Tampa Bay:

Kali: This is the “overrated coaches bowl.”  Norv Turner won with Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman.  Jon Gruden won with the team that Tony Dungy built.  And ever since both coaches have disappointed and usually are at the helm of late season collapses by their teams.  At least this year Norv started his collapse early.
Pick:  Tampa Bay

New York Jets at Seattle:

Antonio: On paper this is a gimmie for the Jets.  But they are 0-3 on the West Coast this year to teams a combined 14-28.  Throw in it is a meeting of Brett Farve and an outgoing Mike Holmgren and it has all the components of a surprisingly close game.  The Jets need this one desperately.
Pick: New York

Pittsburgh at Tennessee:

Kali: Pittsburgh has probably played the most brutal schedule in NFL history.  Besides their 4 games against Cleveland and Cincinnati they’ve played playoff or possible playoff teams every week.  While Tennessee seems to have peaked too early.  We know they won’t be able to run on Pittsburgh and I’m not thinking Kerry Collins can’t pass on them either.
Pick:  Pittsburgh

Antonio: Is it possible that before it is all over Vince Young will re-emerge in Tennessee?  Something has me wondering if this is how it plays out, this week.  Pittsburgh takes a slight lead and in the 3rd quarter knocks Kerry Collins out of the game.  Young comes in to save the game and his running ability catches the Steelers unprepared.  The Titans runaway with home field advantage and Young parties shirtless and drunk with a bunch of dudes that night, at a Vince Young Sausage party.
Pick: Titans

Baltimore at Dallas:

Antonio: Dallas is facing a defense which is notorious for causing turnovers and even more notorious for turning those into points.  To beat the Ravens, you have to limit turnovers, and while I don’t trust Romo to do that, I’m just not sure the Cowboys won’t cause enough of their own to balance it.  I wouldn’t be surprised by a Baltimore win though.
Pick: Dallas

Kali: I hate to say it but I’ve been impressed with Dallas’ defense the last couple of weeks.  But on the other hand is it me or has Roy Williams given them NOTHING.  This will be a defensive battle and I just expect Romo to make more plays than Flacco.
Pick:  Dallas

Carolina at NY Giants:

Kali: I always thought in this country it was innocent until proven guilty.  The Giants suspended “Cheddar Bob” Burress before his case has gone to trial.  After seeing their offense the last couple of weeks without him, I bet the Giants front office is trying to figure out how to bring him back.  I think Carolina can follow the blueprint the Eagles and Cowboys have laid out.  Put 8 in the box and see if the Giants receivers can beat it.
Pick:  Carolina

Antonio: I was sure the Giants were had a temporary lapse against Philly two weeks ago.  But now I’m convinced that they are running on fumes.  The NFL is a war of attrition, and the Giants have been as resilient as anyone.  Their championship defense is on the line in this one.  A win, and they secure homefield advantage, a loss and they are in danger of losing the first round bye altogether.  I really don’t know which way to lean on this one.
Pick: Giants

Philadelphia at Washington:

Antonio: The Eagles generally play well in rematch games, and in December.  McNabb is 5-1 in his career in Washington.   They just don’t have the talent to overcome the injuries and inconsistent play that occurs through a long season.  By the way, pro bowl voting is a joke, how do the Redskins have
Pick: Philadelphia

Kali: Just cause I HATE Philly sports fans.
Pick:  Washington

We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where you can consider the playoffs having already begun.  A few division races are finished and now the race for wildcard positions begin.

• We know the Giants, Titans and Cardinals are in.  It is easy to count out the Cardinals from serious playoff contention considering their weak division, but they have the opportunity with little left to play for to find solutions to some of ther problems.  The Giants loss to the Eagles, really only served as a reminder that Plaxico Burress will be missed and that they aren’t invincible if their defense isn’t getting pressure.  As far as the Titans are concerned, I’m still thinking they will need to be able to pass the ball to win in the playoffs, and they are very weak at WR.  To me they are the type of team that will disappoint.
• Two weeks ago the Jets were a shoo-in to win the AFC East, then Brett Farve starting Farving up.  They control their own destiny though, as they have two home games against Buffalo and Miami, and a should be easy win at Seattle.  But then again, they’ve managed to lose to San Francisco and Oakland.  Two weeks ago the Dolphins were left for dead at 6-5, but they are now tied for the division lead and have two winnable games SF at home and at KC.  But here’s the kicker, they are both tied with New England, who are @Oak, vs. Arizona and @Buf.  The AFC East may get into crazy tiebreakers as conceiveably, all three teams could enter the final week at 10-5.
• The AFC wildcards are pretty much set, as long as Baltimore and Indianpolis go at least 2-1 they should be in.  I’m trying to avoid even considering the scenario if two AFC East teams reach 11-5, with Baltimore and Indy also at 11-5, so that would be a four way tie.  Too much math for me.
• The NFC is a bit more clear.  The NFC North will likely only get one team in either Chicago or Minnesota, and the South will likely go to Carolina after their big win over Tampa Bay.  The Bucs shold be able to cruise into a wildcard.  Leaving one wildcard for Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Atlanta and possibly the loser of the NFC North.
• Philadelphia amazingly might be in the best position to control their destiny.  They have a tie breaker advantage over Atlanta, and a chance to knock both Washington and Dallas out.  Two weeks ago, I wrote them off, and now I have to actually recognize that they have quite a bit of momentum leading into the final 3 weeks.
• Dallas on the other hand has a real problem brewing.  They blew a 10 point lead over Pittsburgh, which might not have been a bad thing.  Except for what has occured since, beginning with Jerry Jones questioning Marion Barber for not being in the game.  Today the shocking, unexpected news broke that TO is jealous of Romo’s relationship with Whitten.  Already, the media is turning on TO, the same guy they did stories about over the last year about how he’d changed.  Give me a break, this was a given, the minute they signed him to an extension.  The flames have been stoked by TO not having his normal numbers, and then the team losing continously.

Picks:

Last Week: Antonio 5-1, Kali 5-1
Overall: Antonio 43-28, Kali 40-31

New Orleans at Chicago:

Kali: I hate to say it but it appears that the NFC South actually is better than my beloved NFC East.  Actually I take that back Tampa Bay actually lost to Dallas without Romo.  I always worry about dome teams on the road in December and January.  Drew Brees should be the MVP but his running game and defense are letting him down.
Pick:  Chicago

Antonio: New Orleans hasn’t played well on the road, but Chicago’s defense hasn’t been very good against the pass for most of the season. I’m thinking upset.
Pick: New Orleans

Minnesota at Arizona:

Antonio: Minnesota needs to either hurt Kurt Warner or have Adrian Peterson run for 350 to win ths one. They aren’t doing either.
Pick: Arizona

Kali: Who would’ve thought that I would ever pick a game based on the fact that Gus Frerotte isn’t playing.  But I just can’t trust the other guy on the road.  And you’re going to have to score a bunch of points to beat Arizona at home.
Pick:  Arizona

Washington at Cincinnati:

Kali: I’m so heartbroken by what has happened to my team.  Not only have we lost 4 of 5, but we haven’t looked like an NFL team on offense for about 10 weeks ago.  I don’t think we can get out of this tailspin that we’re in.  But Cincy is just bad and I don’t expect people like Chad Johnson to really be playing hard down the stretch for this bad of a team.
Pick: Washington

Antonio: I think the Redskins will get their running game back on track here, and hence will have no problems.
Pick: Washington

NY Giants at Dallas:

Antonio: Yet another Texas site collapse on the way in Big D. Dallas is going to implode, and the Giants likely will be refocused and ready for this one.
Pick: Giants

Kali: Dallas actually showed me something in that loss last week to Pittsburgh.  I didn’t think they could be that physical and play in that kind of tough game.  The Giants are going to be without Jacobs and Burress.
Pick:  Dallas

Pittsburgh at Baltimore:

Kali: This is the game of the weekend to me.  Both offenses are going to have a hard time scoring any points.  I think this game will probably be decided by which defense is going to score.  Something about the way Flacco looked last weekend has me worried against the Pittsburgh defense.
Pick:  Pittsburgh

Antonio: I love the way both of these teams plays. They are very similar, very familiar and basically plan on hitting the other one harder than the other can hit back. I don’t think I’ve picked against the Ravens this year, and I won’t now.
Pick: Baltimore

Cleveland at Philadelphia:

Antonio: I have this dread and fear the Eagles will find a way to choke here. They have so much momentum off of back to back wins over playoff teams, that I just fear they come up short. But it won’t happen, Cleveland is terrible and only getting worse.
Pick: Philadelphia

Kali: Damn I know ESPN is trying to flex this game out desperately.  Philadelphia looks like the team that is getting hot and healthy at the right time.  If they make the playoffs I know Minnesota or Arizona wouldn’t want them to come to their place.  I have said it before Westbrook and Adrian Peterson are the biggest game changing running backs in the league.
Pick:  Philadelphia

Last week, I posted about the league being driven by QBs.  However, they are being told how and where to drive the teams by their coaches.

• Coach of the Year – Apologies to Tom Coughlin and Jeff Fisher, but I wouldn’t vote you guys in the top 3 for Coach of the Year, although you are probably in the top 5-10 of NFL coaches now.  This is a race between John Harbaugh (Ravens), Tony Sparano (Dolphins), Mike Smith (Falcons) and Ken Wisenhunt (Cardinals).  Harbaugh took over a bad team with a great defense, and Ken Wisenhunt has two great receivers and a veteran QB returning to some prominence. Sparano has done a fantastic job as well, but I think Mike Smith is the winner. Smith took over a miserable team, with the stink of Mike Vick’s troubles and their prior coaching “savior” fleeing because coaching in the NFL is hard.  Smith clearly has benefited by Matt Ryan being NFL ready so quickly, but that goes to coaching.  He’s motivating the team around Ryan to support him, and keep the game mostly out of his hands.  It is unbelieveable that the Ravens, Falcons and Dolphins are in the playoff hunt with 4 games left, when last year they had a combined record of 10-38.
• Worst Coach – Is there any question that the worst coaching job this year was Norv Turner?  In perhaps the NFL’s worst division, a team with as much talent as they have can’t possibly four wins.  Turner is a prime example of the benefit of the doubt a white coach gets, that black coaches don’t often get.  He was very good as an offensive coordinator, yet in two prior NFL coaching gigs, he was average at best and fired twice.  His record entering this season was 69-87-1.  It is amazing that he’s coached more than 150 NFL games and has two playoff appearances.  Art Shell, 56-52, Ray Rhodes, 31-33 both have as many or more playoff appearance despite significantly less NFL head coaching seasons.  Think Romeo Crennel will get another shot after such a miserable season?  Anybody with a brain could see this bad year coming, they overachieved last year behind an improbable season by Derek Anderson and a rather soft schedule.  Well, this year DA had to do it again against a league ready for him, and with a schedule which included the NFC East and AFC South, two of the leagues tougher divsions.
• Hot Seat - Obviously Crennel, Turner and Rod Marinelli are likely fired.  Gary Kubiak, Jack Del Rio, Brad Childress have probably underachieved but will likely return.  Lovie Smith and Marvin Lewis will probably be gone, Smith has a better chance of returning.  I can’t see Lewis returning unless the ownership doesn’t want to pay him not to coach.  If I’m the owner of the Eagles and Broncos, I’m taking a very hard look at Andy Reid and Mike Shanahan.  Both have long histories with their teams, and have been the most successful coach in the history of their franchise.  But the past few years have been filled with mediocrity.  And I’d have to question whether a Brian Billick like crash is around the corner.  I’m just wondering if the teams should be proactive in giving these guys a year or two off from coaching.  It is risky to fire such experienced, quality coaches, because either is fully capable of pulling a Coughlin and winning a championship while on the hot seat.  But at the same time, you don’t want them hanging around one season too long like Mike Holmgren appears to be doing.

Picks:

Last Week: Antonio 4-2, Kali 2-4
Overall: Antonio 38-27, Kali 35-30

Oakland at San Diego:

Kali: How do Charlie Weis and Norv Turner still have coaching jobs?
Pick:  San Diego

Antonio: Atlanta with a win here would move to just one game of the typically magical playoff number 10, with a gimmie to end the season at home against St. Louis.  Here’s the problem, 5-1, New Orleans record at home.  The Saints are one of those pretty good, but not very good teams who can beat anyone or lose to anyone and has a bit left.
Pick: Saints

Kali: This is probably the game that will decide the NFC South.  And surprisingly the NFC South has moved ahead of the NFC East.  Carolina won a huge road game last week and showed me something I didn’t think they had.  Both defenses are good to great, but I like Carolina’s offense a little better.
Pick:  Carolina

Antonio: Jacksonville has disappointed this season, and now it appears they have already packed their bags for the off-season.  Chicago has hope, slim hope, but hope nonetheless.
Pick: Chicago

Kali: I’m starting to think that if I’m a wild card team I would love to go to Arizona.  You have to be able to run the ball and stop the run.  And right now Arizona isn’t able to do either.  And although Fitzgerald and Bouldin are great they can be taken out when you become one dimensional.
Pick:  Arizona

Antonio: Miami has had a great season, and Buffalo is continuing to crumble after 4-0 start.  However, my thinking is Buffalo makes one last stand.  They’d like nothing more than to disrupt playoff dreams for division opponents, and they have lost mostly close games.
Pick: Buffalo

Antonio: To beat Pittsburgh, you have to beat up their offense more than they’ll beat up your own.  Don’t be fooled into thinking Dallas is completely recovered from their down period.  They beat a struggling Washington followed by patsies: SF and Sea.  Dallas defense has to step up in this one.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Kali: Pittsburgh had another impressive road win against New England last week.  Pittsburgh is the most under the radar 9-3 team I think in the history of the league.  Big Ben hasn’t played well and I think that is why they’re under the radar.  This is Dallas’ chance to prove if they really are back.
Pick:  Pittsburgh

Kali: NY Giants are the BEST team in the NFL.  There I said it.  Whatever you try to take away from them, they have enough options to do whatever they want.  And what makes me mad is that they are generally a young team and their depth is exceptional.  I hate the Giants.
Pick:  NY Giants

Antonio: A few games a season a fan goes completely irrational in trying to find a reason for their team to upset another.  I have no legitimate reason to pick the Eagles in this one, and I won’t even lie to make up a reason.
Pick: Philadelphia

Kali: The Redskins have averaged about 12 points a game in the month of November.  And that is before they have to go face Ray-Ray and Ed Reed.  It would be a slight miracle is they can even get to 12 this week.
Pick:  Baltimore

Antonio: Baltimore is one of those teams that I secretly love. Maybe it’s their physical play, or their nasty attitude on the field. The Redskins are dying a slow death which started with Portis’ injuries.  They won a lot of close games this season, and unfortunately I think they are quickly running out of steam.
Pick: Baltimore