Black Ball Sports

Although these don’t necessarily reflect my pre-tourney bracket, these picks are my gut feeling based on the way the teams are playing.

Midwest

• #1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona – Louisville…no question.  Just a better team.
• #3 Kansas vs. #2 Michigan State – MSU, I just think the Spartans and Izzo need this more.
• Louisville over MSU – I’m not sure they really are the best team in the country, but they play like it.

West

• #1 UConn vs. #5 Purdue – UConn will deal with the off the court problems, but focusing on playing.
• #2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri – Memphis, although if they struggle early, Mizzou won’t let them off the hook.
• UConn over Memphis – Both teams appear on a mission, but give me the old grizzly coach in perhaps his last big tournament (I wouldn’t be surprised to see Calhoun retire).

East

• #1 Pittsburgh vs. #4 Xavier – Pitt is a yearly disappointment, but they are going to pull this one out.
• #2 Duke vs. #3 Villanova – I hate this game.  These teams mirror each other too much.  But give me the Philly boys.
• Pittsburgh over Villanova – I love a guy like Fields in a tournament.  He’ll make some big plays for them late.

South

• #1 UNC vs. #4 Gonzaga – UNC, hands down.  Just too good for Gonzaga, they’ll pull away late.
• #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Syracuse – My heart says Syracuse, but my head says Oklahoma.  My guess is despite backcourt heroics, Blake Griffin will be too much inside for Syracuse.
• Oklahoma over UNC – Often in the NCAA singular stars don’t carry teams deep.  But Griffin does seem special, and they play as a team together.

So I’m thinking Louisville, UConn, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma will be the Final Four.  If the Big East doesn’t have at least two make it through this weekend, it is a disasppointment.

Now down to 16 teams, a few quick thoughts on round one.

Sorry Cinderella…Midnight came and went, and Cinderella is gone.  Yes, Arizona is a 12 seed, so technically they are a low seed playing above their heads.  But the reality is this is one of the country’s elite programs (the last time they failed to make the tournament was 1984).

The reality is we are left with a fantastic sweet 16, where every matchup is prime time and there are dozens of highlights.  The Big East sends a record five teams, so all those who thought the league was overrated should maybe apologize.  All the top 12 seeds are still alive (way to go selection committee, seemed to nail that one).

Midwest

• #1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona – Louisville gets the only “break” in this round.  But they need to be cautious of Arizona.  They aren’t a fluke, they’ve got 3 quality players.
• #3 Kansas vs. #2 Michigan State – Two historically relevant teams, from big conferences, and one is the defending national championship (and both coaches have rings).

West

• #1 UConn vs. #5 Purdue – Connecticut has had nothing but “trouble” in theory.  A big injury, a stupid controversy around Jim Calhoun, then his dehydration problem and this just in recruiting issues.  So what does that mean?  They went out and trashed two straight opponents.  Watch out Purdue.
• #2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri – Upstart Missouri is perhaps the least glorious Sweet 16 (even Gonzaga is more accomplished recently).  So they perhaps more than any team get to raise their national basketball profile.  Only one problem, Memphis, a been there done that team, with a coach who doesn’t seem to let them waiver.

East

• #1 Pittsburgh vs. #4 Xavier – I could be wrong on this, but I heard somewhere that Pitt has never beaten a team higher than a #6 seed.  Amazing, considering they’ve been a really good program the past few years, and now they get Xavier, one of those lesser conference but highly successful “outsiders”.  Pitt needs a Final Four trip in the worst way.
• #2 Duke vs. #3 Villanova – Could the biggest matchup between “white” schools ever.  Is there any way this game doesn’t stay close to the end?  I see this as one of the more exciting games, which should remain close.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a buzzer beater at the end of this one.

South

• #1 UNC vs. #4 Gonzaga – Think about how successful Gonzaga has been over the recent years.  Successful enough that no one considers them a real mid-major or an underdog.  They should be the model program for all the non-elite programs from mid-major schools.  However, I think UNC is just too talented, and Ty Lawson is likely to play.
• #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Syracuse – ‘Cuse seemed to gather themselves together late, and are rolling.  Meanwhile Oklahoma has been very good all season long, and touts the likely player of the year in Blake Griffin.  This is another matchup which has the potential for late game heroics.  Syracuse while not very deep, and will have problems containing Griffin, has three clutch type players in Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins.

I’ll think about these and make my picks tomorrow.

The games were more exciting than the final scores dictated.  In the end, there were no real surprises or upsets.  Gonzaga got past WKU after a full court final seconds push for a layup.  The Zags are an interesting model for mid-majors and small teams.  If you want the respect of the national media, non-local fans and more importantly the selection committee, you have to win big games in the regular season and in the NCAA tournament.  The Zags have been doing this for a few years now, and they get the respect due to their accomplishments.  No longer do they have to sweat out making the tournament, as long as they have their typical regular season, they will get in.  In order to pull this off, Gonzaga had to continue for years to dominate it’s conference, and then started pulling off upsets in the tournament.  Could WKU do the same thing?  After last years’ sweet 16 trip, a first round win this year and close loss to Gonzaga, they might be able to build that case.  But next year, they have to again duplicate the success.  I don’t think the selection committee has as part its criteria a “past success” bonus, but even the name recognition of success has to go a long way.  Build on it WKU!

Cleveland State, Arizona and Wisconsin were the big day 2 winners.  Arizona and Wisconsin really weren’t that surprising, seeing as they come from major conferences and have played teams like Florida State and Utah.  But little Cleveland State was the big story.  This is why the NCAA needs to keep the automatic bids.  I’m completely against the idea of eliminating the auto bids in favor of the 64 “best” only.  The reality is there are no more then about 16 true potential champs, the rest just represent chances at history and excitement.  I’d much rather have a Cleveland State in there, then say another SEC chump.

Now the real question is, can any of the double digit seeds pull off another upset and make it to the Sweet 16.  I don’t know, but one thing I noticed in the first round is that the physical difference between the big boys and the lesser seeds doesn’t seem as dramatic as in the past.  Perhaps in a sign of the parity now in sports, the small schools appear as big and fast as the BCS schools, with the major difference seemingly in star power and depth.  It seems to me that from players say 2-6 the teams are quite similar.

Mostly an upset free day.  Even the so called underdog winners, Western Kentucky, seemed to have quite a bit of support from “experts” leading up to the game.  I was going to pick them, but I had already decided on Mississippi State and VCU.  Which of course meant, I lost those two.  No worries, I didn’t pick them to go any further than one round.  By the way, although I think I’ve never won a tournament, I still believe the number one rule is to avoid picking one of these low seeds to go far.  Yes, every year some team from the middle of nowhere takes down a few giants and goes on a run (Davidson, George Mason etc).  But do you really have any solid reason for picking any of them going into the tournament?  It is often too random, and depends much on the team they are playing.

Will there be any upsets today?  I doubt it amongst the top 3 in each bracket, but watch out for Cleveland State.  They’ve played several tournament teams (Butler, at Syracuse, at West Virginia and at Washington).  Beating Syracuse and Butler (twice).  So I highly doubt they will be intimidated by Wake Forest on a neutral court.

Superbowl Sunday might be an unofficial holiday, but if we were to compare the NCAA Mens’ tournament to a holiday it would Carnival.  The tournament brings more non fans to the table then the Superbowl.  Millions of people who never watched one minute of a game this year will fill out a bracket and some of it based on the wackiest of decisions.  Gotta love this time of year.

Rant on Snubs:

Before I say anything about this years tournament, one message to all those “snub” teams.  Suck it up.  Mind you, I was a bitter Syracuse fan the past two seasons wondering how we got left out.  But during that time I realized something.  If you are from one of the big conferences, yet a bubble team, you have no gripe.  For two reasons, primarily you’ve had your chances to prove you belonged.  More than likely coming from a big conference, you’ve had games against ranked opponents, home and away.  You’ve had television appearances and been a known quantity all season long.  Here’s the deal, you’ve failed, and more than that, you have no legitimate shot of winning a title.  NONE.  If you were good enough, you’d have found a way to put yourself legitimately in the tournament.  Now, as far as the mid-majors.  You had your chance too, in your conference tournament.  This isn’t like football, where a team can go 13-0 and be left out.  Every conference either designates a regular season champ or the post season tournament champ as it’s representative.  Sorry, you didn’t pull it off.  St. Mary’s?  Beat Gonzaga, you were blown out by them in the conference tournament.  No longer am I going to even think about the snubs each year.  If you really feel you belong, go win the NIT.  Prove that you have the testicular fortitude to win a tournament, beat teams which are “better” than you.

‘09 Tourney:

Can this tournament really come down to a toe?  I say yes, as much as I hate Carolina, I think they’d be my pick if not for the health of Lawson being a question mark.  They’ve got coaching, talent, a dominate big man (overrated but still), and a top notch point.  All the makings of a championship caliber team.  In a season which the current #1 seems to change weekly, there’s been little doubt that UNC would be there in the end.  If Lawson is able to get back in there and healthy before the Sweet 16 I like them.

Head games abound. Beginning with the head of Oklahoma’s Griffin, but really it is about the head of the rest of his team.  They are the typical, one superior player team, very reminiscent of Durant at Texas.  If his surrounding cast can win games when he’s doubled and tripled and outright denied dominance, then they’ve got a chance.  What about the mindset of teams from the Big Ten who’ve generally been given little respect?  Personally, I like none of them.  I admit it, I’m biased against the Big Ten.  Never liked one of them, and matter of fact look at my bracket and you’ll see it.  But regardless of what I think, since I’m a nobody, Michigan State is the team there which can make a run.  Mostly cause Tom Izzo is one of those coaches which can get into a team’s head and push them a bit further then they maybe should go.

Big East dominance. The best conference all year, which as far as I’m concerned cannibalized itself to the point that tournament talent level teams like Georgetown and Notre Dame were left out.  It is not a stretch to say that it is possible that all Final Four teams could be from the Big East.  Certainly, Louisville, UConn and Pitt should be there (by ranking for what that is worth).  But Syracuse should it might have the ability to make it.  Villanova, West Virginia and Marquette have all shown glimpses.  I do think this will be a banner year for the East.  Not sure how far to take that though, but I’m thinking minimal two final four teams, and likely 3 or 4 Elite Eight teams.

Who is Memphis? Could be the best team in the country, but could also be a pretender from a weak conference.  I like Calipari a lot.  And there is no doubt that Memphis has a very good tournament track record.  But it is very hard to judge a team which played so few tournament and ranked teams.  There 20+ win streak is impressive, but I’d have expected that knowing their talent and coaching levels.  The selection committed did them a favor by putting them as a two seed.  Calipari is going to have this team motivated, and going back to that streak, think about the fact they were clearly better than all those teams, and yet never failed to show up.  But now can they do the same thing against similarly skilled opponents.

1st Round Upsets:

Mark me down for: Mississipi State, Maryland, USC, Wisconsin, VCU, Temple.  I considered Western Kentucky and Portland State, but decided to cut them.

Sweet 16:

West Virginia in over Kansas and Purdue (see I don’t totally diss the Big 10).  That’s it.  For some unknown reason, I seem to like a lot of chalk this year.

Elite 8:

Pittsburgh v. Duke; UConn v. Memphis; Louisville v. Michigan St; Gonzaga v. Oklahoma;  Yep, picking against UNC and for Gonzaga.  They’ve been here before, they have the talent, I think they pull of the upset.

Final 4:

Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Memphis and Louisville.  I have picked Pittsburgh year after year, and they always let me down, but I’m going with them yet again.

Championship game:

Memphis against Pittsburgh.  With Memphis as the champion.  I dunno.  Part of me thinks Memphis could be knocked out early. But I get this suspicion that they are fired up, and they are immensely talented and well coached.  Calipari is one of those coaches who always has very good teams, yet no titles.  I think he gets one here.

78-67 Memphis Tigers

The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the NFL’s most successful teams for a decade.  In pretty much every way possible, winning, collecting talent, marketing etc, they are among the NFL’s premier franchises.  The only thing they haven’t done is win a Superbowl.  Last season, they again came painfully close to having a shot at a title.  Just when an Eagles’ fan feels good about the franchise’s direction they take some possible missteps.

To make it worse, they like to pee on your head and tell you it is raining.  Everything they’ll say publicly is made to convince Eagles fans that they are ready and willing to win a championship.  Yet their moves show little desire to do that.

Have the Eagles made or not made any moves this off season which would set them back for years?  No, they wisely didn’t get involved deeply in a weak free agency class.  TJ Houshmanzadeh is a good, but not great player, and in many ways the production he could have given them, might be accomplished by DeSean Jackson. TE Kellen Winslow was traded, but he’s been a bit of a head case for years, so I can understand the caution there.

They signed Stacy Andrews, a potentially decent and solid starting tackle.  He’s young, coming off an injury, but perhaps more important he’s the brother of pro bowl guard Shawn Andrews who last year dealt with depression and injury.  The addition of Stacy, may not only bring them a starter but may also ensure Shawn returns to his pro bowl level.  Resigning Tra Thomas would have provided them some stability, but they’ve been pretty good at identifying lineman, so there is reason to trust them there.

All, perfectly reasonable moves.  Smart enough to keep up the success they’ve had.

Yet, what about Brian Dawkins?  No, Dawk’ isn’t the same player he was five years ago.  He might only be a versatile, smart, veteran, part-time player.  But he was the face of the franchise’s defense for well over a decade.  He represented all that Philly is supposed to be, tough, physical, passionate.  He’s perhaps the most popular Eagle since Reggie White.  How did the team treat him?  They gave him one offer which basically was a take it or leave it.  They essentially said, “You are old and replaceable.  We’d like you back, but since no one will pay you good money, we won’t either.”  They were wrong.  Denver, a team trying to change it’s fortunes, recognized that at minimal Dawkins would be a strong leader for their defense.

What would the Eagles have potentially lost by resigning him?  A few million dollars at most.  NFL contracts are easily structured to prevent longterm cap affects, and the Eagles well know it.  Perhaps, for their sake they know the cap too well.  Do they have a young player ready to step in and fill the job not only admirably but even better?  Apparently, they aren’t 100% sold on Quintin Demps, seeing as they went out and signed Sean Jones from Cleveland (you know the Browns, one of the worst defensive teams in the league the past few years).

The move to let Dawk’ walk wouldn’t be nearly as painful or puzzling if they had come out before he signed elsewhere and admitted to being ready to move on.  This would demonstrate a clear plan in mind, as opposed to just flying by the seat of the pants.  The Andrews signing for example, showed they had planned to allow at least let Tra Thomas or Jon Runyan go.  However, they let Sean Considine and Dawkins sign elsewhere before signing another safety.  Considine is nothing more than a special teams player and backup, but that’s beside the point.  He knew the system, and was cheap.  If they planned on allowing Dawkins to go, wouldn’t it make sense to ensure you have at least one veteran safety?

The Dawkins decision reminds me a lot of the fiasco with the fullback last year, the punt returner the year before or when they tried to convert a RB Bruce Perry to CB and had to almost immediately go sign a corner after a game or two.  I’m not saying that Demps or Jones can’t fill the void, but their track record isn’t good the first year they enter a season with a big question mark.

Just dumb enough to waste time.

Back to the cap for a minute…they have plenty of space.  So signing anyone wasn’t based on cap restrictions, it was based on willingness to pay.  They have shown themselves to be cheap with their own players, yet have a willingness to spend when it comes to certain free agents (Assante Samuel, Jevon Kearse, Terrell Owens, Runyan).   They smartly stockpile draftpicks, but often don’t seem to use them for much of anything.  Like bypassing the last two first round picks.

How have they responded to the local criticism by media and fans alike?  By firing a part-time employee who slammed them on Facebook.  And who was this guy?  Was he a public relations staff member who people in the media knew?  No, he was a lowly stadium worker, the kind of guy that shows up on Sunday happy to work for his favorite team.  Did he publicly out internal discussions which would harm the team?  No, he basically expressed the frustration that most Eagles fans had in losing Dawkins.  Their firing him, brought far more attention then his comments would ever have brought if they simply ignored them.

A lot of what the Eagles have done is shown a disrespect for fans and players unnecessarily.  The Donovan McNabb benching for example.  Yes, you have a structure which dictates that the position coach notifies players of lineup changes.  Great.  Stick to that plan, and alienate your franchise QB.  Makes a ton of sense.  McNabb, for the second time in two seasons has asked for more weapons.  Think Tom Brady would have to do that?  Or Peyton Manning?   Heck, Trent Edwards got his wish when the Buffalo Bills signed TO.

The Eagles sit on a mound of cap space, and rather than perhaps taking the risk on overpaying for free agents, they’ve sat back and done nearly nothing.

Much of the media loves to focus on the so-called fragile McNabb.  But answer me this?  Is the front office perhaps more scarred by the TO fiasco then McNabb is?  People, what risks have they taken since that one turned bad?  That move to begin with was smart, they had a need and filled it.  It worked to near perfection the first year, as they went to the Superbowl.  Then TO got upset over his contract, started pointing fingers at McNabb and saying stuff about him, becoming a distraction and potential divisive force in the locker room.  All this we know, yet, what exactly did the franchise do?  Oh, they appeared to play the tough guy and suspend TO, fine him, eventually released him.  But that was all reactionary as opposed to being proactive.    The second TO started talking contract, they had two options 1) quietly renegotiate the contract or 2) trade him.  Either way, they’d have been far better off then the route they chose.  TO coming off the first season he had with the Eagles, would have netted them a fortune.  And everyone knew they gave him a contract which was in their favor.

I believe they are now scared to take on anymore potential headcases.  Which last time I checked is pretty much every NFL player.  They are almost all in some way egotistical, money driven or crazy.  The reality is to attain success in the NFL you have to be willing to sacrifice your body.  And not just willing to work hard in the weight room.  The risk of long term injury in the NFL is very high and the potential for long, high paying careers is low.  Players play for the glory, the check and for themselves.  Any GM, coach or fan who thinks differently is fooling himself.  It is part of the game.

And dumb enough to allow themselves to look idiotic.

They have time to show McNabb, the rest of the team and the fans exactly how serious they are about winning a championship.  The draft has not yet arrived, and there are always veteran players released or traded throughout the off season.

If the Eagles want to show how serious they are regarding winning the Superbowl, then they will not let Anquan Boldin be traded anywhere else but Philly.  No player in the draft, no free agent, nothing else would suffice.

As fans we fall in love with our favorite players.  We sport their jerseys even when we are clearly too old to have a grown man’s name on our back.  We look at them as warriors who in failure or success show the pride, heart and determination that we rest our hope on.  Yet, for the teams, GMs, cap gurus and coaches, a player is just a player, especially as they age.  In the past two weeks alone Marvin Harrison, Fred Taylor, Derek Brooks and Brian Dawkins have been released or moved on to other teams.  In this day and age, no longer can teams hold onto important veterans for leadership or because they are fan favorites.  The teams have to build a roster of 53 players within the salary cap; and aging, veterans who have lost a step and perhaps their production can be replaced by younger cheaper player are shown the door.

The Colts appeared to make an honest effort to keep Harrison, despite his clear struggles last season.  I believe they had an honest desire to find a role for him, as he was a face of the franchise and a comfort blanket to Peyton Manning.  He might still come back, as it does not appear he’s a hot commodity.  Harrison’s better days are behind him, and is no longer a #1.  For the Colts, he’d be the 3rd receiver, on most teams probably the #2.  He can still be effective as he’s very skilled at finding space and getting open, but he’s no longer a deep threat.

The  Bucs surely have the money and could have used the leadership of  Brooks, but that wasn’t the order of the day.  The Bucs have clearly decided that it is no longer 2002 and they are moving on from the past.  Gruden, Brooks, Dunn, Galloway, Garcia etc were given their walking papers.  The Bucs have an inordinate amount of salary cap space, and were a ghost of their past last year.  They are effectively starting over with insertion of Raheem Morris at head coach and the acquistion of Kellen Winslow was brilliant.  The Bucs look to be very active in FA and have been linked to many players thus far.

The Jaguars had about as miserable a season as a team could have after going 5-11 off a 11-5 season. I’m not quite sure where they are going to improve.  They have a Maurice Jones-Drew to replace Taylor, but the reality is they have a lot of issues to figure out.  Is David Garrard the real solution at QB?  Are they going to get enough production at WR? What happened to the defense?   The Jags probably won’t miss Taylor, but they have a lot of questions to answer.

The Eagles had somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in cap space with many of their best players locked up.  Yet, they basically gave their team’s heart and soul a take it or leave low end offer.  Should they have risked the age of Dawkins coming back to burn them?  Absolutely.  The money was a bit high, a guaranteed $9 mill.  But unlike many of the other veteran players released or not resigned, Dawkins was still relatively cheap and productive.  He was to the Eagles defense what Donovan McNabb was to the offense down the stretch.  Most NFL contracts have various out clauses which provide the team with a bit of insurance, and no doubt the Eagles could have structured a contract to deal with it.  My concern is though, what exactly are the Eagles doing to better themselves this offseason?  When the Eagles target a player they usually get him and fairly quickly.  TJ Housmanzadeh isn’t coming to Philadelphia, as rumor has he and his agent played games with the asking price.  The FA market is thin at the positions the Eagles could improve in, TE and WR.  That being said though, the Eagles were but a game away from the Superbowl last year, and now is precisely the time to take risks.  They should have aquired Winslow and kept Dawkins.    Thus far the Eagles have lost Correll Buckhalter, Dawkins and traded Lito Sheppherd, while only signing Stacy Andrews a Tackle.  I seriously wonder if they are yet again setting McNabb up for failure.

Meanwhile, down the coast, the Redskins dolled out dollars to Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall.  My gut says these are expensive deals, which are bound to backfire.  How many interior defensive lineman have long, dominate careers?  Does the Haynesworth put them over the top this year?  Those are the primary questions to answer in evaluation this signing.  Hall, I just don’t outright get.  What did he show them down the stretch that made them figure he’s worthy of top 10 CB dollars?  Remember, just last year the Raiders signed him to a big contract and then cut him midseason.  Yes, it was the Raiders, but still what does that say about Hall.  My guess is short term, Haynesworth will work out, but he won’t be a dominate player through the length of the deal.  Hall will not live up to his contract.  He might be a solid player for them, but he’s been a player whose name and talent have overshadowed his average performance.

The Jets made two very smart pickups, Lito Sheppherd and Bart Scott.  Sheppherd’s deal appears cap friendly, and he’s a quality corner when healthy.  Scott knows the defense of Rex Ryan and can be an instant leader for them.  It cost them quite a bit, but might set them up to be a defense first team, from the jump.