Black Ball Sports

The NBA is the most physical “non-contact” sport in the world.  Technically speaking, much of the contact is illegal and should draw fouls.  Yet, especially as the playoffs roll on much of this contact is just part of the game.

Last season, the Boston Celtics won the championship because they were physically and mentally tougher than the Lakers.   To be more specific, outside of Kobe Bryant, the Lakers are a team of punks.  I’m tired of hearing about Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum.  Take Kobe and Phil Jackson away from this team, and these three would make the core of one of the worst teams in the league.  They have no toughness, little heart and the minute an opponent jabs them, they back down.

Conversely, I think Dirk Nowitski is the punk on Dallas. Don’t get me wrong, Nowitski is a great player, he’s everything that GMs look for in the European player. He’s tall, is a lights out shooter, skilled passer and ball handler, but he’s also a punk.  In game one of the Denver series, as long as he was 15 feet away from the basket he was effective ( and as I write this, he failed to capitalize on a size mismatch against Dahntay Jones in the post).  Nowitski doesn’t have a great team around him, so I doubt he could win a title with this team.  Still, until he’s able to man up to the inevitable elbows to the chest by his defenders, he’ll always fade as the playoffs go deeper.  Yao Ming has adjusted to the physical nature of the NBA, and he gets beat on much more.

I love the effect Chauncey Billups has had on Denver.  Allen Iverson has always been my boy, and I still believe that if he’d one other “star” type player next to him during the Larry Brown years in Philly he might have stole a championship.  That being said, Billups turned this soft, non defensive team into a physical contender.  At some point though, Carmelo Anthony needs to make the transition into the definitive superstar.  I still look at him and see Glenn Robinson.  Supremely skilled, but lacking that “it” factor which makes Kobe, Lebron, Dwayne Wade champions.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team win a championship, but in the end it’s going to have to be Melo carrying them there.

Lebron James…enough said.  New York Knicks fans, get that thought of him coming to NYC out of your heads.  The more I watch him play with his team of castoffs, the more I have the feeling the King will finally deliver.  His cast is very underrated.  They were making a point in the broadcast of game one against Atlanta about how many former NBA starters were on their bench.  And this isn’t unproductive, old veterans playing for the minimal.  Some of these guys were key figures in their Finals run just two years ago.  Perhaps most imporantly, these guys are tough enough to know their roles, accept them, and yet take the shots rather than watching Lebron.

I hope some day to see the excitement of the Final Four in College Football.

The best part of this weekend in my opinion is that the teams earned their way here.  With the lack of major upsets, all four teams had to make it here on the merits of playing the best competition.  Of course to most observers, Michigan State and Villanova are the “surprises”.  Not as glamorous as their opponents, both of these teams have track records which would indicate this is legit, and not all that much a suprise.

Jay Wright has had this Villanova program heading in the right direction for years, and this is the end result of that hard work.  It is good to see a team from the Philly area represent, as it has been a notoriously good college and high school basketball city.  Is it just me or is it so strange that New York City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago and DC really haven’t had good, consistent programs for seemingly decades?

Tom Izzo leads the Spartans back to the Final Four, and I am willing to admit that I don’t give them enough credit.  I’ve always respected Izzo, but at the same time, year after year I look at his no name teams from the generally weak-average Big Ten, and just bypass them.  But here they are again, something like the 5th Final Four in about 10 years?

UConn and UNC are the glorious teams here.  They have the big time future NBAers, All-Americans, coaches with reps bigger than their states.  Thabeet, Price, Adrien, Lawson, Hansborogh, Green etc, all top tier players.  They are the elite of the elite, the teams kids dream of playing for the first time they pick up a basketball.  Even UNC’s color, Carolina Blue, is legendary.  But they also represent the difficulty to win a championship.  Jim Calhoun has two championships despite being the dominate programs coach for 20+ years.  Roy Williams has had great team after great team at Kansas and now UNC, and yet has just one title.  We often forget how difficult it is to get a team of teenagers and early 20 somethings to focus and bring their A game for six straight games against top competition.

Who do I like?  I want UConn and UNC to meet up for the ultimate showdown.  And the reality is, there is no reason it shouldn’t happen, except that Nova and MSU are not intimidate, have played teams of this caliber this season and know and relish in their underdog status.  Unfortunately, I’m thinking it is a year for the bigs, the elites, to make it happen.  UConn and UNC will meet for the championship Monday night.

North Carolina will win it all.

Although these don’t necessarily reflect my pre-tourney bracket, these picks are my gut feeling based on the way the teams are playing.

Midwest

• #1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona – Louisville…no question.  Just a better team.
• #3 Kansas vs. #2 Michigan State – MSU, I just think the Spartans and Izzo need this more.
• Louisville over MSU – I’m not sure they really are the best team in the country, but they play like it.

West

• #1 UConn vs. #5 Purdue – UConn will deal with the off the court problems, but focusing on playing.
• #2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri – Memphis, although if they struggle early, Mizzou won’t let them off the hook.
• UConn over Memphis – Both teams appear on a mission, but give me the old grizzly coach in perhaps his last big tournament (I wouldn’t be surprised to see Calhoun retire).

East

• #1 Pittsburgh vs. #4 Xavier – Pitt is a yearly disappointment, but they are going to pull this one out.
• #2 Duke vs. #3 Villanova – I hate this game.  These teams mirror each other too much.  But give me the Philly boys.
• Pittsburgh over Villanova – I love a guy like Fields in a tournament.  He’ll make some big plays for them late.

South

• #1 UNC vs. #4 Gonzaga – UNC, hands down.  Just too good for Gonzaga, they’ll pull away late.
• #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Syracuse – My heart says Syracuse, but my head says Oklahoma.  My guess is despite backcourt heroics, Blake Griffin will be too much inside for Syracuse.
• Oklahoma over UNC – Often in the NCAA singular stars don’t carry teams deep.  But Griffin does seem special, and they play as a team together.

So I’m thinking Louisville, UConn, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma will be the Final Four.  If the Big East doesn’t have at least two make it through this weekend, it is a disasppointment.

Now down to 16 teams, a few quick thoughts on round one.

Sorry Cinderella…Midnight came and went, and Cinderella is gone.  Yes, Arizona is a 12 seed, so technically they are a low seed playing above their heads.  But the reality is this is one of the country’s elite programs (the last time they failed to make the tournament was 1984).

The reality is we are left with a fantastic sweet 16, where every matchup is prime time and there are dozens of highlights.  The Big East sends a record five teams, so all those who thought the league was overrated should maybe apologize.  All the top 12 seeds are still alive (way to go selection committee, seemed to nail that one).

Midwest

• #1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona – Louisville gets the only “break” in this round.  But they need to be cautious of Arizona.  They aren’t a fluke, they’ve got 3 quality players.
• #3 Kansas vs. #2 Michigan State – Two historically relevant teams, from big conferences, and one is the defending national championship (and both coaches have rings).

West

• #1 UConn vs. #5 Purdue – Connecticut has had nothing but “trouble” in theory.  A big injury, a stupid controversy around Jim Calhoun, then his dehydration problem and this just in recruiting issues.  So what does that mean?  They went out and trashed two straight opponents.  Watch out Purdue.
• #2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri – Upstart Missouri is perhaps the least glorious Sweet 16 (even Gonzaga is more accomplished recently).  So they perhaps more than any team get to raise their national basketball profile.  Only one problem, Memphis, a been there done that team, with a coach who doesn’t seem to let them waiver.

East

• #1 Pittsburgh vs. #4 Xavier – I could be wrong on this, but I heard somewhere that Pitt has never beaten a team higher than a #6 seed.  Amazing, considering they’ve been a really good program the past few years, and now they get Xavier, one of those lesser conference but highly successful “outsiders”.  Pitt needs a Final Four trip in the worst way.
• #2 Duke vs. #3 Villanova – Could the biggest matchup between “white” schools ever.  Is there any way this game doesn’t stay close to the end?  I see this as one of the more exciting games, which should remain close.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a buzzer beater at the end of this one.

South

• #1 UNC vs. #4 Gonzaga – Think about how successful Gonzaga has been over the recent years.  Successful enough that no one considers them a real mid-major or an underdog.  They should be the model program for all the non-elite programs from mid-major schools.  However, I think UNC is just too talented, and Ty Lawson is likely to play.
• #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Syracuse – ‘Cuse seemed to gather themselves together late, and are rolling.  Meanwhile Oklahoma has been very good all season long, and touts the likely player of the year in Blake Griffin.  This is another matchup which has the potential for late game heroics.  Syracuse while not very deep, and will have problems containing Griffin, has three clutch type players in Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins.

I’ll think about these and make my picks tomorrow.

The games were more exciting than the final scores dictated.  In the end, there were no real surprises or upsets.  Gonzaga got past WKU after a full court final seconds push for a layup.  The Zags are an interesting model for mid-majors and small teams.  If you want the respect of the national media, non-local fans and more importantly the selection committee, you have to win big games in the regular season and in the NCAA tournament.  The Zags have been doing this for a few years now, and they get the respect due to their accomplishments.  No longer do they have to sweat out making the tournament, as long as they have their typical regular season, they will get in.  In order to pull this off, Gonzaga had to continue for years to dominate it’s conference, and then started pulling off upsets in the tournament.  Could WKU do the same thing?  After last years’ sweet 16 trip, a first round win this year and close loss to Gonzaga, they might be able to build that case.  But next year, they have to again duplicate the success.  I don’t think the selection committee has as part its criteria a “past success” bonus, but even the name recognition of success has to go a long way.  Build on it WKU!

Cleveland State, Arizona and Wisconsin were the big day 2 winners.  Arizona and Wisconsin really weren’t that surprising, seeing as they come from major conferences and have played teams like Florida State and Utah.  But little Cleveland State was the big story.  This is why the NCAA needs to keep the automatic bids.  I’m completely against the idea of eliminating the auto bids in favor of the 64 “best” only.  The reality is there are no more then about 16 true potential champs, the rest just represent chances at history and excitement.  I’d much rather have a Cleveland State in there, then say another SEC chump.

Now the real question is, can any of the double digit seeds pull off another upset and make it to the Sweet 16.  I don’t know, but one thing I noticed in the first round is that the physical difference between the big boys and the lesser seeds doesn’t seem as dramatic as in the past.  Perhaps in a sign of the parity now in sports, the small schools appear as big and fast as the BCS schools, with the major difference seemingly in star power and depth.  It seems to me that from players say 2-6 the teams are quite similar.

Mostly an upset free day.  Even the so called underdog winners, Western Kentucky, seemed to have quite a bit of support from “experts” leading up to the game.  I was going to pick them, but I had already decided on Mississippi State and VCU.  Which of course meant, I lost those two.  No worries, I didn’t pick them to go any further than one round.  By the way, although I think I’ve never won a tournament, I still believe the number one rule is to avoid picking one of these low seeds to go far.  Yes, every year some team from the middle of nowhere takes down a few giants and goes on a run (Davidson, George Mason etc).  But do you really have any solid reason for picking any of them going into the tournament?  It is often too random, and depends much on the team they are playing.

Will there be any upsets today?  I doubt it amongst the top 3 in each bracket, but watch out for Cleveland State.  They’ve played several tournament teams (Butler, at Syracuse, at West Virginia and at Washington).  Beating Syracuse and Butler (twice).  So I highly doubt they will be intimidated by Wake Forest on a neutral court.

Superbowl Sunday might be an unofficial holiday, but if we were to compare the NCAA Mens’ tournament to a holiday it would Carnival.  The tournament brings more non fans to the table then the Superbowl.  Millions of people who never watched one minute of a game this year will fill out a bracket and some of it based on the wackiest of decisions.  Gotta love this time of year.

Rant on Snubs:

Before I say anything about this years tournament, one message to all those “snub” teams.  Suck it up.  Mind you, I was a bitter Syracuse fan the past two seasons wondering how we got left out.  But during that time I realized something.  If you are from one of the big conferences, yet a bubble team, you have no gripe.  For two reasons, primarily you’ve had your chances to prove you belonged.  More than likely coming from a big conference, you’ve had games against ranked opponents, home and away.  You’ve had television appearances and been a known quantity all season long.  Here’s the deal, you’ve failed, and more than that, you have no legitimate shot of winning a title.  NONE.  If you were good enough, you’d have found a way to put yourself legitimately in the tournament.  Now, as far as the mid-majors.  You had your chance too, in your conference tournament.  This isn’t like football, where a team can go 13-0 and be left out.  Every conference either designates a regular season champ or the post season tournament champ as it’s representative.  Sorry, you didn’t pull it off.  St. Mary’s?  Beat Gonzaga, you were blown out by them in the conference tournament.  No longer am I going to even think about the snubs each year.  If you really feel you belong, go win the NIT.  Prove that you have the testicular fortitude to win a tournament, beat teams which are “better” than you.

‘09 Tourney:

Can this tournament really come down to a toe?  I say yes, as much as I hate Carolina, I think they’d be my pick if not for the health of Lawson being a question mark.  They’ve got coaching, talent, a dominate big man (overrated but still), and a top notch point.  All the makings of a championship caliber team.  In a season which the current #1 seems to change weekly, there’s been little doubt that UNC would be there in the end.  If Lawson is able to get back in there and healthy before the Sweet 16 I like them.

Head games abound. Beginning with the head of Oklahoma’s Griffin, but really it is about the head of the rest of his team.  They are the typical, one superior player team, very reminiscent of Durant at Texas.  If his surrounding cast can win games when he’s doubled and tripled and outright denied dominance, then they’ve got a chance.  What about the mindset of teams from the Big Ten who’ve generally been given little respect?  Personally, I like none of them.  I admit it, I’m biased against the Big Ten.  Never liked one of them, and matter of fact look at my bracket and you’ll see it.  But regardless of what I think, since I’m a nobody, Michigan State is the team there which can make a run.  Mostly cause Tom Izzo is one of those coaches which can get into a team’s head and push them a bit further then they maybe should go.

Big East dominance. The best conference all year, which as far as I’m concerned cannibalized itself to the point that tournament talent level teams like Georgetown and Notre Dame were left out.  It is not a stretch to say that it is possible that all Final Four teams could be from the Big East.  Certainly, Louisville, UConn and Pitt should be there (by ranking for what that is worth).  But Syracuse should it might have the ability to make it.  Villanova, West Virginia and Marquette have all shown glimpses.  I do think this will be a banner year for the East.  Not sure how far to take that though, but I’m thinking minimal two final four teams, and likely 3 or 4 Elite Eight teams.

Who is Memphis? Could be the best team in the country, but could also be a pretender from a weak conference.  I like Calipari a lot.  And there is no doubt that Memphis has a very good tournament track record.  But it is very hard to judge a team which played so few tournament and ranked teams.  There 20+ win streak is impressive, but I’d have expected that knowing their talent and coaching levels.  The selection committed did them a favor by putting them as a two seed.  Calipari is going to have this team motivated, and going back to that streak, think about the fact they were clearly better than all those teams, and yet never failed to show up.  But now can they do the same thing against similarly skilled opponents.

1st Round Upsets:

Mark me down for: Mississipi State, Maryland, USC, Wisconsin, VCU, Temple.  I considered Western Kentucky and Portland State, but decided to cut them.

Sweet 16:

West Virginia in over Kansas and Purdue (see I don’t totally diss the Big 10).  That’s it.  For some unknown reason, I seem to like a lot of chalk this year.

Elite 8:

Pittsburgh v. Duke; UConn v. Memphis; Louisville v. Michigan St; Gonzaga v. Oklahoma;  Yep, picking against UNC and for Gonzaga.  They’ve been here before, they have the talent, I think they pull of the upset.

Final 4:

Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Memphis and Louisville.  I have picked Pittsburgh year after year, and they always let me down, but I’m going with them yet again.

Championship game:

Memphis against Pittsburgh.  With Memphis as the champion.  I dunno.  Part of me thinks Memphis could be knocked out early. But I get this suspicion that they are fired up, and they are immensely talented and well coached.  Calipari is one of those coaches who always has very good teams, yet no titles.  I think he gets one here.

78-67 Memphis Tigers

I’m typically a defense first kind of guy.  But the NBA needs to open up a bit more.  Let’s face it, scoring is exciting.  Guys running full speed up and down the court opens the game up for more exciting plays.

A defense first coach, Terry Porter gets fired, and replaced by Alvin Gentry who immediately reinstituts the shoot within 7 seconds rule from Mike D’Antoni days and the Suns score 140+ in back to back games against the Clippers.  Most people would argue that having Shaq on the roster dictates a slower, more methodical pace.  Sure, if you want or need him to be your leading scorer.  But let’s face it he’s old now, but there are two primary ways to get an offense running, turnovers and quick outlet passes.

Shaq can still rebound and he’s always been a pretty good passer.  Him being there should actually make it fairly easy for them to run.  And really, if they get it out fast, there is no need for him to even cross mid court, saving his knees a bit.

More teams in the league need to adopt this philosophy.  Why?  Because it is far more likely for teams to be able to find fast, athletic 6′6″ guys then 7 foot unstoppable inside players.  Most of the younger players entering the league are better in the open court then in half court.  They are only average at best shooters, but insanely athletic and skilled with the ball.  Many have street and pick-up game like experience, where there aren’t designed plays as much as instinctual movement.

The question always is though, can this type of play win championships.  Probably not, unless either one of these teams is truly special or leaguewide the best teams play this way.  But remember something, the main reason defense works for championships, is that many NBA teams are flawed enough that they can’t play consistent offense.  So when a good defense steps up and pushes the offense around it sputters, through in the pressure of a NBA finals fourth quarter, and bingo a collapse.

Last year, during the NBA Finals when the Celtics made that remarkable 20+ point comeback?  Two reasons it happened, they pushed hard to score quick and the Lakers started worrying more about the clock then scoring themselves.  Would the Lakers have held on if they pressed the offense?  Maybe not, but they certainly would have made it hard for the Celtics to chip away at the lead.

Actually, part of me thinks defense would improve.  Not in the scoring sense, but in the excitement sense.  More teams would play pressure defenses, knowing that their opponent has less time to run set plays.  The NBA will probably never see full court, game long pressure, because the players are a bit too skilled for that, but perhaps some more front court trapping, and tighter coverage on players without the ball.  This could lead to high turnover numbers, which would lead to more scoring.

The NBA shouldn’t be a defensive league.  Who wants to see half-court offense?  Not me, I’m far more intrigued by the 3 on 2 break, the Amare Stoudemire 6-10 freaks running in the open.  I want to see Lebron average 35 points and 12 assists.  I want Kobe to hitup teams for 60 once or twice a month.  I want to see CP3 throw half-court alley oops to Tyson Chandler.

Drop the clock and bring on the scoring.

Eagles – Sigh, they lost another championship game.  Unfortunately, most consider there to be only two types of big games, championship games and games you are favored to win and lose.  Everything else usually gets forgotten about.  The Eagles with Andy Reid and McNabb are 1-4 in NFC Championship games and 0-1 in the Superbowl, hence they can’t win the big games.  But Reuben Frank of Philly Burbs said it best, “The reality is that you don’t reach as many big games as McNabb has the last decade without winning a ton of other big games.”  McNabb has more playoff wins than anyone but Bradshaw, Brady, Montana, Elway, Farve, Aikman and Staubach.  That’s right, more than Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Jeff Garcia, Phil Simms, Dan Marino or anyone else people want to throw out there.  No doubt, McNabb needs to win one a Superbowl.  But when will his team step up for him?  The best example of this is Ben Rothelisberger.  In the Superbowl when he won his, he was 9-21, 0 tds and 2 ints.  And he won.  The Eagles lost to the Cardinals, because the defense could not stop Warner and Fitzgerald.  Case closed.  McNabb didn’t start well, and he didn’t finish well, but he had an amazing 2nd half, and put his team in the lead.  The defense didn’t hold, and no receiver made a play on a close but slightly miss thrown ball.  Think about that last play, where Curtis was tripped, got a hand on the ball, but couldn’t bring it in.  Does Fitzgerald make that play? Hines Ward? Reggie Wayne? Brandon Marshall? Speaking of the Eagles WR, here’s the career totals of their top 5 receivers (Reggie Brown, Curtis, DeSean Jackson, Hank Baskett and Jason Avant) 235 games, 609 receptions, 8303 yards and 50 tds.  Anquan Boldin? 80-502-6496-40.  Fitzgerald? 76-426-5975-46.  So do you think the Eagles could trade all five for either one of them and be a much better team?

NBA - I haven’t talked NBA yet all season, and not because I don’t enjoy it, but just because the season is so long.

• Andrew Bynum – Good player, but the love he gets is outrageous.  He’s averaging 13 and 8 folks.  Nice numbers for a young post player.  But the way you hear it, it’s as if he’s become Shaq or Duncan already. Give him time.
• Greg Oden – Speaking of giving a guy time, can we stop labeling him as a bust?  He missed all of his “rookie” year after microfracture surgery.  He’s improving every game.  Yes, he looks slow and lumbering, what do you expect he was hurt.  My guess is if he doesn’t get derailed again by a major injury, he’ll be better than Bynum, rather quickly.
• Dwight Howard - Best Big Man in NBA – He’s got that label now in my book.  He’ll need to knock off Duncan officially by winning a title.  But he’s leading the league in blocks and rebounds, and more importantly the Magic are winning big time.
• LeBron James – I dunno what Cleveland is going to do to keep him.  Somehow, someway they need to bring in Championship quality players around him.  They are essentially a one man band, and have the NBA’s best record.  Sick.
• This Generation – I don’t think get’s enough credit for being a bunch of good guys, who play good basketball.  None of then NBA’s star players has had any troubles with the law since Kobe and his rape case.  James, Howard, Wade, CP3, Durant, Bosh etc, have done nothing but play basketball.  The NBA has a long history of troubles off the court, and in an era where NFLers are getting arrested for weapons charges and fights, the NBA players are awfully well behaved.  Think about it?  When was the last time you even heard anything about Ron Artest, the resident bad boy.  Even Carmello Anthony who probably has worst rep of the stars today, it only amounted to carrying marijuana, saying dumb stuff on DVD trying to keep his street cred and a fight where he threw a sucker punch.  Unfortunately, the NBA has a lot of bad history, yet great basketball, and people compare the generations so often but don’t see that while maybe the on the court play isn’t as good as the 80s the guys are much better citizens.

NCAA -

Speaking of great basketball, the Big East is a bit insane.  The league is experience the fruition of the expansion to 16 teams and bringing in notoriously tough teams like Louisville and Cincinnati.  As a football conference, it is subpar, but as a basketball conference it is second to none.  Right now it is hard to judge who from the league is good enough to go all the way.  The schedules they have to endure are no doubt going to lead to two or three game losing streaks for most of the teams.  I can see at least 4 or 5 teams with the talent to go a long way in the tournament.

MLB - Why are baseball teams so stupid?  Year in and year out, they will overpay a decent, but never great pitcher with injury history (AJ Burnett to the Yankees).  However, the greatest hitter of this generation (who actually might be clean) is without a contract.  Manny Ramirez might be a pain in the butt.  He might flake out on a team in say June.  But where is he every October?  Oh, that’s right, in the playoffs making opponents miserable.  Red Sox?  How did you do with out him?  Mets?  Are you serious about trying to knock off the Phillies, when you have no heart?  Angels? Did you not see how productive Manny and Big Papi were together?  Think Manny and Vlad Guerrero couldn’t be as or more productive?  I don’t understand how GMs and owners don’t see how this guy turns around ballclubs almost immediately.