Black Ball Sports

Mostly an upset free day.  Even the so called underdog winners, Western Kentucky, seemed to have quite a bit of support from “experts” leading up to the game.  I was going to pick them, but I had already decided on Mississippi State and VCU.  Which of course meant, I lost those two.  No worries, I didn’t pick them to go any further than one round.  By the way, although I think I’ve never won a tournament, I still believe the number one rule is to avoid picking one of these low seeds to go far.  Yes, every year some team from the middle of nowhere takes down a few giants and goes on a run (Davidson, George Mason etc).  But do you really have any solid reason for picking any of them going into the tournament?  It is often too random, and depends much on the team they are playing.

Will there be any upsets today?  I doubt it amongst the top 3 in each bracket, but watch out for Cleveland State.  They’ve played several tournament teams (Butler, at Syracuse, at West Virginia and at Washington).  Beating Syracuse and Butler (twice).  So I highly doubt they will be intimidated by Wake Forest on a neutral court.

Superbowl Sunday might be an unofficial holiday, but if we were to compare the NCAA Mens’ tournament to a holiday it would Carnival.  The tournament brings more non fans to the table then the Superbowl.  Millions of people who never watched one minute of a game this year will fill out a bracket and some of it based on the wackiest of decisions.  Gotta love this time of year.

Rant on Snubs:

Before I say anything about this years tournament, one message to all those “snub” teams.  Suck it up.  Mind you, I was a bitter Syracuse fan the past two seasons wondering how we got left out.  But during that time I realized something.  If you are from one of the big conferences, yet a bubble team, you have no gripe.  For two reasons, primarily you’ve had your chances to prove you belonged.  More than likely coming from a big conference, you’ve had games against ranked opponents, home and away.  You’ve had television appearances and been a known quantity all season long.  Here’s the deal, you’ve failed, and more than that, you have no legitimate shot of winning a title.  NONE.  If you were good enough, you’d have found a way to put yourself legitimately in the tournament.  Now, as far as the mid-majors.  You had your chance too, in your conference tournament.  This isn’t like football, where a team can go 13-0 and be left out.  Every conference either designates a regular season champ or the post season tournament champ as it’s representative.  Sorry, you didn’t pull it off.  St. Mary’s?  Beat Gonzaga, you were blown out by them in the conference tournament.  No longer am I going to even think about the snubs each year.  If you really feel you belong, go win the NIT.  Prove that you have the testicular fortitude to win a tournament, beat teams which are “better” than you.

‘09 Tourney:

Can this tournament really come down to a toe?  I say yes, as much as I hate Carolina, I think they’d be my pick if not for the health of Lawson being a question mark.  They’ve got coaching, talent, a dominate big man (overrated but still), and a top notch point.  All the makings of a championship caliber team.  In a season which the current #1 seems to change weekly, there’s been little doubt that UNC would be there in the end.  If Lawson is able to get back in there and healthy before the Sweet 16 I like them.

Head games abound. Beginning with the head of Oklahoma’s Griffin, but really it is about the head of the rest of his team.  They are the typical, one superior player team, very reminiscent of Durant at Texas.  If his surrounding cast can win games when he’s doubled and tripled and outright denied dominance, then they’ve got a chance.  What about the mindset of teams from the Big Ten who’ve generally been given little respect?  Personally, I like none of them.  I admit it, I’m biased against the Big Ten.  Never liked one of them, and matter of fact look at my bracket and you’ll see it.  But regardless of what I think, since I’m a nobody, Michigan State is the team there which can make a run.  Mostly cause Tom Izzo is one of those coaches which can get into a team’s head and push them a bit further then they maybe should go.

Big East dominance. The best conference all year, which as far as I’m concerned cannibalized itself to the point that tournament talent level teams like Georgetown and Notre Dame were left out.  It is not a stretch to say that it is possible that all Final Four teams could be from the Big East.  Certainly, Louisville, UConn and Pitt should be there (by ranking for what that is worth).  But Syracuse should it might have the ability to make it.  Villanova, West Virginia and Marquette have all shown glimpses.  I do think this will be a banner year for the East.  Not sure how far to take that though, but I’m thinking minimal two final four teams, and likely 3 or 4 Elite Eight teams.

Who is Memphis? Could be the best team in the country, but could also be a pretender from a weak conference.  I like Calipari a lot.  And there is no doubt that Memphis has a very good tournament track record.  But it is very hard to judge a team which played so few tournament and ranked teams.  There 20+ win streak is impressive, but I’d have expected that knowing their talent and coaching levels.  The selection committed did them a favor by putting them as a two seed.  Calipari is going to have this team motivated, and going back to that streak, think about the fact they were clearly better than all those teams, and yet never failed to show up.  But now can they do the same thing against similarly skilled opponents.

1st Round Upsets:

Mark me down for: Mississipi State, Maryland, USC, Wisconsin, VCU, Temple.  I considered Western Kentucky and Portland State, but decided to cut them.

Sweet 16:

West Virginia in over Kansas and Purdue (see I don’t totally diss the Big 10).  That’s it.  For some unknown reason, I seem to like a lot of chalk this year.

Elite 8:

Pittsburgh v. Duke; UConn v. Memphis; Louisville v. Michigan St; Gonzaga v. Oklahoma;  Yep, picking against UNC and for Gonzaga.  They’ve been here before, they have the talent, I think they pull of the upset.

Final 4:

Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Memphis and Louisville.  I have picked Pittsburgh year after year, and they always let me down, but I’m going with them yet again.

Championship game:

Memphis against Pittsburgh.  With Memphis as the champion.  I dunno.  Part of me thinks Memphis could be knocked out early. But I get this suspicion that they are fired up, and they are immensely talented and well coached.  Calipari is one of those coaches who always has very good teams, yet no titles.  I think he gets one here.

78-67 Memphis Tigers

The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the NFL’s most successful teams for a decade.  In pretty much every way possible, winning, collecting talent, marketing etc, they are among the NFL’s premier franchises.  The only thing they haven’t done is win a Superbowl.  Last season, they again came painfully close to having a shot at a title.  Just when an Eagles’ fan feels good about the franchise’s direction they take some possible missteps.

To make it worse, they like to pee on your head and tell you it is raining.  Everything they’ll say publicly is made to convince Eagles fans that they are ready and willing to win a championship.  Yet their moves show little desire to do that.

Have the Eagles made or not made any moves this off season which would set them back for years?  No, they wisely didn’t get involved deeply in a weak free agency class.  TJ Houshmanzadeh is a good, but not great player, and in many ways the production he could have given them, might be accomplished by DeSean Jackson. TE Kellen Winslow was traded, but he’s been a bit of a head case for years, so I can understand the caution there.

They signed Stacy Andrews, a potentially decent and solid starting tackle.  He’s young, coming off an injury, but perhaps more important he’s the brother of pro bowl guard Shawn Andrews who last year dealt with depression and injury.  The addition of Stacy, may not only bring them a starter but may also ensure Shawn returns to his pro bowl level.  Resigning Tra Thomas would have provided them some stability, but they’ve been pretty good at identifying lineman, so there is reason to trust them there.

All, perfectly reasonable moves.  Smart enough to keep up the success they’ve had.

Yet, what about Brian Dawkins?  No, Dawk’ isn’t the same player he was five years ago.  He might only be a versatile, smart, veteran, part-time player.  But he was the face of the franchise’s defense for well over a decade.  He represented all that Philly is supposed to be, tough, physical, passionate.  He’s perhaps the most popular Eagle since Reggie White.  How did the team treat him?  They gave him one offer which basically was a take it or leave it.  They essentially said, “You are old and replaceable.  We’d like you back, but since no one will pay you good money, we won’t either.”  They were wrong.  Denver, a team trying to change it’s fortunes, recognized that at minimal Dawkins would be a strong leader for their defense.

What would the Eagles have potentially lost by resigning him?  A few million dollars at most.  NFL contracts are easily structured to prevent longterm cap affects, and the Eagles well know it.  Perhaps, for their sake they know the cap too well.  Do they have a young player ready to step in and fill the job not only admirably but even better?  Apparently, they aren’t 100% sold on Quintin Demps, seeing as they went out and signed Sean Jones from Cleveland (you know the Browns, one of the worst defensive teams in the league the past few years).

The move to let Dawk’ walk wouldn’t be nearly as painful or puzzling if they had come out before he signed elsewhere and admitted to being ready to move on.  This would demonstrate a clear plan in mind, as opposed to just flying by the seat of the pants.  The Andrews signing for example, showed they had planned to allow at least let Tra Thomas or Jon Runyan go.  However, they let Sean Considine and Dawkins sign elsewhere before signing another safety.  Considine is nothing more than a special teams player and backup, but that’s beside the point.  He knew the system, and was cheap.  If they planned on allowing Dawkins to go, wouldn’t it make sense to ensure you have at least one veteran safety?

The Dawkins decision reminds me a lot of the fiasco with the fullback last year, the punt returner the year before or when they tried to convert a RB Bruce Perry to CB and had to almost immediately go sign a corner after a game or two.  I’m not saying that Demps or Jones can’t fill the void, but their track record isn’t good the first year they enter a season with a big question mark.

Just dumb enough to waste time.

Back to the cap for a minute…they have plenty of space.  So signing anyone wasn’t based on cap restrictions, it was based on willingness to pay.  They have shown themselves to be cheap with their own players, yet have a willingness to spend when it comes to certain free agents (Assante Samuel, Jevon Kearse, Terrell Owens, Runyan).   They smartly stockpile draftpicks, but often don’t seem to use them for much of anything.  Like bypassing the last two first round picks.

How have they responded to the local criticism by media and fans alike?  By firing a part-time employee who slammed them on Facebook.  And who was this guy?  Was he a public relations staff member who people in the media knew?  No, he was a lowly stadium worker, the kind of guy that shows up on Sunday happy to work for his favorite team.  Did he publicly out internal discussions which would harm the team?  No, he basically expressed the frustration that most Eagles fans had in losing Dawkins.  Their firing him, brought far more attention then his comments would ever have brought if they simply ignored them.

A lot of what the Eagles have done is shown a disrespect for fans and players unnecessarily.  The Donovan McNabb benching for example.  Yes, you have a structure which dictates that the position coach notifies players of lineup changes.  Great.  Stick to that plan, and alienate your franchise QB.  Makes a ton of sense.  McNabb, for the second time in two seasons has asked for more weapons.  Think Tom Brady would have to do that?  Or Peyton Manning?   Heck, Trent Edwards got his wish when the Buffalo Bills signed TO.

The Eagles sit on a mound of cap space, and rather than perhaps taking the risk on overpaying for free agents, they’ve sat back and done nearly nothing.

Much of the media loves to focus on the so-called fragile McNabb.  But answer me this?  Is the front office perhaps more scarred by the TO fiasco then McNabb is?  People, what risks have they taken since that one turned bad?  That move to begin with was smart, they had a need and filled it.  It worked to near perfection the first year, as they went to the Superbowl.  Then TO got upset over his contract, started pointing fingers at McNabb and saying stuff about him, becoming a distraction and potential divisive force in the locker room.  All this we know, yet, what exactly did the franchise do?  Oh, they appeared to play the tough guy and suspend TO, fine him, eventually released him.  But that was all reactionary as opposed to being proactive.    The second TO started talking contract, they had two options 1) quietly renegotiate the contract or 2) trade him.  Either way, they’d have been far better off then the route they chose.  TO coming off the first season he had with the Eagles, would have netted them a fortune.  And everyone knew they gave him a contract which was in their favor.

I believe they are now scared to take on anymore potential headcases.  Which last time I checked is pretty much every NFL player.  They are almost all in some way egotistical, money driven or crazy.  The reality is to attain success in the NFL you have to be willing to sacrifice your body.  And not just willing to work hard in the weight room.  The risk of long term injury in the NFL is very high and the potential for long, high paying careers is low.  Players play for the glory, the check and for themselves.  Any GM, coach or fan who thinks differently is fooling himself.  It is part of the game.

And dumb enough to allow themselves to look idiotic.

They have time to show McNabb, the rest of the team and the fans exactly how serious they are about winning a championship.  The draft has not yet arrived, and there are always veteran players released or traded throughout the off season.

If the Eagles want to show how serious they are regarding winning the Superbowl, then they will not let Anquan Boldin be traded anywhere else but Philly.  No player in the draft, no free agent, nothing else would suffice.

As fans we fall in love with our favorite players.  We sport their jerseys even when we are clearly too old to have a grown man’s name on our back.  We look at them as warriors who in failure or success show the pride, heart and determination that we rest our hope on.  Yet, for the teams, GMs, cap gurus and coaches, a player is just a player, especially as they age.  In the past two weeks alone Marvin Harrison, Fred Taylor, Derek Brooks and Brian Dawkins have been released or moved on to other teams.  In this day and age, no longer can teams hold onto important veterans for leadership or because they are fan favorites.  The teams have to build a roster of 53 players within the salary cap; and aging, veterans who have lost a step and perhaps their production can be replaced by younger cheaper player are shown the door.

The Colts appeared to make an honest effort to keep Harrison, despite his clear struggles last season.  I believe they had an honest desire to find a role for him, as he was a face of the franchise and a comfort blanket to Peyton Manning.  He might still come back, as it does not appear he’s a hot commodity.  Harrison’s better days are behind him, and is no longer a #1.  For the Colts, he’d be the 3rd receiver, on most teams probably the #2.  He can still be effective as he’s very skilled at finding space and getting open, but he’s no longer a deep threat.

The  Bucs surely have the money and could have used the leadership of  Brooks, but that wasn’t the order of the day.  The Bucs have clearly decided that it is no longer 2002 and they are moving on from the past.  Gruden, Brooks, Dunn, Galloway, Garcia etc were given their walking papers.  The Bucs have an inordinate amount of salary cap space, and were a ghost of their past last year.  They are effectively starting over with insertion of Raheem Morris at head coach and the acquistion of Kellen Winslow was brilliant.  The Bucs look to be very active in FA and have been linked to many players thus far.

The Jaguars had about as miserable a season as a team could have after going 5-11 off a 11-5 season. I’m not quite sure where they are going to improve.  They have a Maurice Jones-Drew to replace Taylor, but the reality is they have a lot of issues to figure out.  Is David Garrard the real solution at QB?  Are they going to get enough production at WR? What happened to the defense?   The Jags probably won’t miss Taylor, but they have a lot of questions to answer.

The Eagles had somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in cap space with many of their best players locked up.  Yet, they basically gave their team’s heart and soul a take it or leave low end offer.  Should they have risked the age of Dawkins coming back to burn them?  Absolutely.  The money was a bit high, a guaranteed $9 mill.  But unlike many of the other veteran players released or not resigned, Dawkins was still relatively cheap and productive.  He was to the Eagles defense what Donovan McNabb was to the offense down the stretch.  Most NFL contracts have various out clauses which provide the team with a bit of insurance, and no doubt the Eagles could have structured a contract to deal with it.  My concern is though, what exactly are the Eagles doing to better themselves this offseason?  When the Eagles target a player they usually get him and fairly quickly.  TJ Housmanzadeh isn’t coming to Philadelphia, as rumor has he and his agent played games with the asking price.  The FA market is thin at the positions the Eagles could improve in, TE and WR.  That being said though, the Eagles were but a game away from the Superbowl last year, and now is precisely the time to take risks.  They should have aquired Winslow and kept Dawkins.    Thus far the Eagles have lost Correll Buckhalter, Dawkins and traded Lito Sheppherd, while only signing Stacy Andrews a Tackle.  I seriously wonder if they are yet again setting McNabb up for failure.

Meanwhile, down the coast, the Redskins dolled out dollars to Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall.  My gut says these are expensive deals, which are bound to backfire.  How many interior defensive lineman have long, dominate careers?  Does the Haynesworth put them over the top this year?  Those are the primary questions to answer in evaluation this signing.  Hall, I just don’t outright get.  What did he show them down the stretch that made them figure he’s worthy of top 10 CB dollars?  Remember, just last year the Raiders signed him to a big contract and then cut him midseason.  Yes, it was the Raiders, but still what does that say about Hall.  My guess is short term, Haynesworth will work out, but he won’t be a dominate player through the length of the deal.  Hall will not live up to his contract.  He might be a solid player for them, but he’s been a player whose name and talent have overshadowed his average performance.

The Jets made two very smart pickups, Lito Sheppherd and Bart Scott.  Sheppherd’s deal appears cap friendly, and he’s a quality corner when healthy.  Scott knows the defense of Rex Ryan and can be an instant leader for them.  It cost them quite a bit, but might set them up to be a defense first team, from the jump.

I’m typically a defense first kind of guy.  But the NBA needs to open up a bit more.  Let’s face it, scoring is exciting.  Guys running full speed up and down the court opens the game up for more exciting plays.

A defense first coach, Terry Porter gets fired, and replaced by Alvin Gentry who immediately reinstituts the shoot within 7 seconds rule from Mike D’Antoni days and the Suns score 140+ in back to back games against the Clippers.  Most people would argue that having Shaq on the roster dictates a slower, more methodical pace.  Sure, if you want or need him to be your leading scorer.  But let’s face it he’s old now, but there are two primary ways to get an offense running, turnovers and quick outlet passes.

Shaq can still rebound and he’s always been a pretty good passer.  Him being there should actually make it fairly easy for them to run.  And really, if they get it out fast, there is no need for him to even cross mid court, saving his knees a bit.

More teams in the league need to adopt this philosophy.  Why?  Because it is far more likely for teams to be able to find fast, athletic 6′6″ guys then 7 foot unstoppable inside players.  Most of the younger players entering the league are better in the open court then in half court.  They are only average at best shooters, but insanely athletic and skilled with the ball.  Many have street and pick-up game like experience, where there aren’t designed plays as much as instinctual movement.

The question always is though, can this type of play win championships.  Probably not, unless either one of these teams is truly special or leaguewide the best teams play this way.  But remember something, the main reason defense works for championships, is that many NBA teams are flawed enough that they can’t play consistent offense.  So when a good defense steps up and pushes the offense around it sputters, through in the pressure of a NBA finals fourth quarter, and bingo a collapse.

Last year, during the NBA Finals when the Celtics made that remarkable 20+ point comeback?  Two reasons it happened, they pushed hard to score quick and the Lakers started worrying more about the clock then scoring themselves.  Would the Lakers have held on if they pressed the offense?  Maybe not, but they certainly would have made it hard for the Celtics to chip away at the lead.

Actually, part of me thinks defense would improve.  Not in the scoring sense, but in the excitement sense.  More teams would play pressure defenses, knowing that their opponent has less time to run set plays.  The NBA will probably never see full court, game long pressure, because the players are a bit too skilled for that, but perhaps some more front court trapping, and tighter coverage on players without the ball.  This could lead to high turnover numbers, which would lead to more scoring.

The NBA shouldn’t be a defensive league.  Who wants to see half-court offense?  Not me, I’m far more intrigued by the 3 on 2 break, the Amare Stoudemire 6-10 freaks running in the open.  I want to see Lebron average 35 points and 12 assists.  I want Kobe to hitup teams for 60 once or twice a month.  I want to see CP3 throw half-court alley oops to Tyson Chandler.

Drop the clock and bring on the scoring.

The day we wait for year after year is here.  Tonight either Ben Rothelisberger or Kurt Warner is going to be the leader of a Superbowl Champion again.

It is still hard to imagine that after years on the scrapheap Warner has turned around his career to once again be the QB of a championship level team.  And Big Ben at 26 could be a two time winner as well.  The Cardinals versus the Steelers; the worst franchise in NFL history against one of the best.  Five Superbowls versus zero.

Picks:

Kali: I have been wrong on Arizona these whole playoffs.  I picked against them in all their games and only thought they had a chance against Atlanta.  I have like everyone else been impressed with Larry Fitzgerald.  But quite honestly I’ve been more disappointed in the defensive coordinators that they’ve faced.  How do the Panthers give him one on one coverage with Boldin hurt?  How do the Eagles let him catch 3 touchdowns in the first half?  They finally make the adjustments at the half but by then it is too late.  This goes back to my problem with coaches.  Too many want to do what they do and never adjust based on their talent or the team their facing.  It doesn’t make sense if your a man to man team to not shade the safety over the top against Fitzgerald.  That’s you wanting to be right and not doing what’s best for your team.  I don’t see the Steelers making the same mistake.

The Cardinals defense in the last couple of weeks has played out of their minds.  But the one thing they haven’t faced is a team like Pittsburgh that will stick to the run.  Atlanta and Carolina both got behind early and became pass happy.  Pittsburgh gets down 28 points in the 4th quarter with 2 minutes to go and they stick to the run.  And they also have a healthy Willie Parker who is also fresh.  And that will lead to great play action passing opportunities for Big Ben.
Pick:  Pittsburgh

Antonio: I picked Pittsburgh to be here at the beginning of the season.  Yet, at the midway point I doubted them because I thought they couldn’t protect Rothelisberger.  They still haven’t. He’s taken quite a beating, but has remained tall.  More importantly the defense has been dominate.  The Cardinals will no doubt put the defense to the test.  Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are very close to being a rarity in the NFL, a QB-WR duo which all but singlehandedly wins a championship.  The Cards defense has been getting a lot of credit, but to be honest, they’ve been very lucky.  They had people wide open all day, if not for an errant McNabb in the first half, they should have put up 42 on the board.  The one thing they’ve done very well, is cause turnovers.  The funny thing about that is you can’t predicate it.  There’s no planning for an interception off a deflection.  If they don’t get those things today, how exactly are they going to keep the Steelers to less than 24 points.  That is the number for the game.  If the Cardinals can somehow hold the Steelers to less than 24, then I can believe they’ll have a chance in the 4th quarter.

I think this game could come down to Santonio Holmes and Anquan Boldin.  The focus defensively for the Steelers has to be Fitzgerald, while the Cardinals have to stop the Steelers running game.  One of these two players is going to find himself singled often, and is going to make a deciding play.  Look for it early.  The Superbowl often goes to the team which gets the first jump, and puts all the pressure on the other team.  I have a very odd feeling, call it deja vu.
Pick: Cardinals

Eagles – Sigh, they lost another championship game.  Unfortunately, most consider there to be only two types of big games, championship games and games you are favored to win and lose.  Everything else usually gets forgotten about.  The Eagles with Andy Reid and McNabb are 1-4 in NFC Championship games and 0-1 in the Superbowl, hence they can’t win the big games.  But Reuben Frank of Philly Burbs said it best, “The reality is that you don’t reach as many big games as McNabb has the last decade without winning a ton of other big games.”  McNabb has more playoff wins than anyone but Bradshaw, Brady, Montana, Elway, Farve, Aikman and Staubach.  That’s right, more than Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Jeff Garcia, Phil Simms, Dan Marino or anyone else people want to throw out there.  No doubt, McNabb needs to win one a Superbowl.  But when will his team step up for him?  The best example of this is Ben Rothelisberger.  In the Superbowl when he won his, he was 9-21, 0 tds and 2 ints.  And he won.  The Eagles lost to the Cardinals, because the defense could not stop Warner and Fitzgerald.  Case closed.  McNabb didn’t start well, and he didn’t finish well, but he had an amazing 2nd half, and put his team in the lead.  The defense didn’t hold, and no receiver made a play on a close but slightly miss thrown ball.  Think about that last play, where Curtis was tripped, got a hand on the ball, but couldn’t bring it in.  Does Fitzgerald make that play? Hines Ward? Reggie Wayne? Brandon Marshall? Speaking of the Eagles WR, here’s the career totals of their top 5 receivers (Reggie Brown, Curtis, DeSean Jackson, Hank Baskett and Jason Avant) 235 games, 609 receptions, 8303 yards and 50 tds.  Anquan Boldin? 80-502-6496-40.  Fitzgerald? 76-426-5975-46.  So do you think the Eagles could trade all five for either one of them and be a much better team?

NBA - I haven’t talked NBA yet all season, and not because I don’t enjoy it, but just because the season is so long.

• Andrew Bynum – Good player, but the love he gets is outrageous.  He’s averaging 13 and 8 folks.  Nice numbers for a young post player.  But the way you hear it, it’s as if he’s become Shaq or Duncan already. Give him time.
• Greg Oden – Speaking of giving a guy time, can we stop labeling him as a bust?  He missed all of his “rookie” year after microfracture surgery.  He’s improving every game.  Yes, he looks slow and lumbering, what do you expect he was hurt.  My guess is if he doesn’t get derailed again by a major injury, he’ll be better than Bynum, rather quickly.
• Dwight Howard - Best Big Man in NBA – He’s got that label now in my book.  He’ll need to knock off Duncan officially by winning a title.  But he’s leading the league in blocks and rebounds, and more importantly the Magic are winning big time.
• LeBron James – I dunno what Cleveland is going to do to keep him.  Somehow, someway they need to bring in Championship quality players around him.  They are essentially a one man band, and have the NBA’s best record.  Sick.
• This Generation – I don’t think get’s enough credit for being a bunch of good guys, who play good basketball.  None of then NBA’s star players has had any troubles with the law since Kobe and his rape case.  James, Howard, Wade, CP3, Durant, Bosh etc, have done nothing but play basketball.  The NBA has a long history of troubles off the court, and in an era where NFLers are getting arrested for weapons charges and fights, the NBA players are awfully well behaved.  Think about it?  When was the last time you even heard anything about Ron Artest, the resident bad boy.  Even Carmello Anthony who probably has worst rep of the stars today, it only amounted to carrying marijuana, saying dumb stuff on DVD trying to keep his street cred and a fight where he threw a sucker punch.  Unfortunately, the NBA has a lot of bad history, yet great basketball, and people compare the generations so often but don’t see that while maybe the on the court play isn’t as good as the 80s the guys are much better citizens.

NCAA -

Speaking of great basketball, the Big East is a bit insane.  The league is experience the fruition of the expansion to 16 teams and bringing in notoriously tough teams like Louisville and Cincinnati.  As a football conference, it is subpar, but as a basketball conference it is second to none.  Right now it is hard to judge who from the league is good enough to go all the way.  The schedules they have to endure are no doubt going to lead to two or three game losing streaks for most of the teams.  I can see at least 4 or 5 teams with the talent to go a long way in the tournament.

MLB - Why are baseball teams so stupid?  Year in and year out, they will overpay a decent, but never great pitcher with injury history (AJ Burnett to the Yankees).  However, the greatest hitter of this generation (who actually might be clean) is without a contract.  Manny Ramirez might be a pain in the butt.  He might flake out on a team in say June.  But where is he every October?  Oh, that’s right, in the playoffs making opponents miserable.  Red Sox?  How did you do with out him?  Mets?  Are you serious about trying to knock off the Phillies, when you have no heart?  Angels? Did you not see how productive Manny and Big Papi were together?  Think Manny and Vlad Guerrero couldn’t be as or more productive?  I don’t understand how GMs and owners don’t see how this guy turns around ballclubs almost immediately.

Championship weekend is when two teams and their fans suffer inmeasureable heartbreak.  They are just on the edge of making it to the biggest game and stage in all of professional sports.  If nobody remembers Superbowl losers, then surely a championship game loser is just another eliminated team.  All the good play for the past 18 or so games, the stunning wins and great performances are quickly forgotten.   Two teams will come out of this with relief and joy in making the Superbowl, the other two will be left with what ifs.

• Safety, the most underrated position – Is it a coincidence that the final four teams all have genuine Pro Bowl safeties?  Adrian Wilson, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed and Brian Dawkins, are more than just line of last defense players. They are hard hitting, big play making defensive weapons.  They are to their defenses what #1 WR or dominate backs are.  Offenses are forced to identify where these players line up, and wide receivers know to keep their head up on crossing patterns.  Each one may hold the key to their teams chances at the Superbowl.  The flexibilty these players provide their defensive coaches makes the entire defense better.
• LT gone in San Diego – Ladanian Tomlinson seems to be headed toward a new team next year.  Typically, the NFL is notorious for dumping players at the first sign they are on the downward cycle of their careers.   So often fans and the media blast players who hold out for better contracts or make trade demands.  This is the reason why.   An athletes window to make money and have both personal and team success is only but so long. LT put this team on his back for years, and now, when he’s maybe showing some chinks in his armor, they are considering moving on.  It is their right, and it may be best for their team in the long run.  BUT, please don’t say “what about the team?” when a player wants to renegotiate, or when he doesn’t play through an injury.  Also, regarding LT, apparently the San Diego GM is upset because LT or his people let it be known that his late season groin injury was more severe then the team let on.  From the team’s standpoint, they like to keep injuries a mystery to supposedly fool their opponents.  Meanwhile, superstars such as LT have to endure the fans and media questioning their “manhood” for not suiting up, or only able to play on a limited basis.   San Diego as a franchise is on the way down.  I think they are going to pay for their decision to fire Marty Schottenheimer and even more so for letting LT go, if they choose to do so.
• Appreciating Reid and McNabb – Even if they do not make and win the Superbowl, the accomplishments of these two together is astonishing.  I thought as a duo their time was up.  Ten years, several division titles, double digit playoff wins, 5 conference championship appearances and a Superbowl trip.  In an era, where patience is short and coaches rarely get to fulfill even one five year plan, the fact these two are still together is remarkable.   The resiliancy through slumps, personal problems and tough losses has led them yet again to success.  Maybe, this will be the year, and McNabb will get to cement his legacy and clinch a hall of fame induction.  Maybe not, but they are no less accomplished than Marv Levy and Jim Kelly, who’s success mostly came in the pre free agency era.  It took 15 years for John Elway to win a Superbowl, and for him, I’m sure it was all the sweeter.  Making Reid’s accomplishments even more amazing is when considering the careers of coaches like Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, Tom Coughlin, John Gruden, Brian Billick and Bill Cowher.  Oh, yes all of them have a Superbowl win, but outside of the year or two they won it, they suffered significant collapses, shocking losses and disappointment.  This is the reality of being a NFL head coach.  Bill Belichek is a rarity; Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson and other multiple Superbowl winning coaches couldn’t do it in the free agency era.  For Reid, he needs the Cowher like break through.
• Patient Jerry Jones – I’m wondering if Jones is really thinking logically.  Jon Gruden was fired and he’s got a ring.  Yes, his team collapsed after starting 9-3, but the reality is, they probably never should have been 9-3, he’d done a great job getting them to that record, and just couldn’t sustain it.  Meanwhile the Cowboys, never should have been in position to miss the playoffs.  They supposedly have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL (I personally think their O-Line and secondary are highly overrated).  They truly are the Yankees of the NFL.  Big name, big history, big cash but bad decisions.  TO, Wade Philips and Pacman would have been gone day one after the season, addition by subtraction.

Matchups:

AFC – Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

The NFL’s nastiest and most bitter current rivalry.  They are akin to Hamas and Isreal.  They don’t like each other, and never have.  They are going to bang heads hard for 60 minutes.  The winner will be looking forward to a week off before the Superbowl.  For each team, the winning formula is the most basic of all NFL cliches and trends.  They will attempt to control the ball and tempo, force turnovers and run the ball.  Their personalities and personnel are similar.  They are attack first defenses. Hines Ward and Derrick Mason seem like they are cousins who grew up on the same block and play the same way.  Both teams have linebackers who will be all over the field.   Both teams also sport young passionate head coaches and veteran defensive coordinators intent on causing the opposing QB pain.  The major difference between the teams are the QBs, and even they aren’t very much different.  Both came from smaller schools and weren’t expected to have early success.  But Ben Rothelisberger is now a veteran QB.  He’s been here before, and he’ll be comfortable with both the on field and off field pressure of a championship game.  Joe Flacco has been amazing, and the team has rallied around him to make his life easier, however, he still has only 18 games under his belt.    This game has all the makings of a great one, although it is very unlikely to be high scoring.

NFC: Philadelphia vs Arizona

The Cardinals are getting a ton of well deserved credit for their performances the past two weeks.  They’ve played better defense and had a much stronger commitment to the run.  Larry Fitzgerald is a man child with the best hands in the NFL.  Anquan Boldin looks like a young TO.  Kurt Warner looks like Kurt Warner circa 2001.   The defense put up an amazing effort against Carolina.  They wanted it more and proved they belonged.  I picked a blowout in their game with Carolina, I just didn’t believe it would be Arizona blowing out the Panthers.  Meanwhile, the Eagles continued the pattern they’ve had for almost two months now.  Patient offense and dominate defense.  For all the talk about their inconsistent offense, and their bad losses and their tie with Cincinnati.  The teams that gave them true problems had really good defense or at least very talented defensive players.  Dallas, NY Giants, Redskins twice, the Bears and the Ravens account for their losses and all but the Bears are top 10 defenses.  Could they, should they have fared better in some of the games?  Absolutely, but the reality is, you play tough physical defenses you are going to suffer some bad losses and offensive performances.  Everyone wants to buy into Arizona being better defensively now.  They’ve played well, but Carolina seemed to have a loss of identity.  They ran the ball only 15 times for the game.  And it was in the critical 1st half that they went away from the run and paid the price with five ints.  In the playoffs, the teams that stick to who they are and keep with their identity are the ones who win.

Picks:

Last Week: Antonio 3-1, Kali 2-2

Overall: 56-41, Kali 54-43

Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

Kali: These are 2 quality franchises.  They have systems and they pick players that fit those systems.  And no matter what each respective team does on offense their defense is always going to be there.  I hope everyone tightens their chin straps and checks their shoulder pads.  Because this is going to be a physical battle.  This will be a low scoring affair.  And Big Ben will make fewer costly mistakes than Flacco.
Pick:  Pittsburgh

Antonio: I love the Ravens, just not this week.  I think their slim offensive abilities will be pushed to the limit this weekend.  The Steelers won’t be beaten in a game where the opponent can’t score 17 points.  I think Flacco is a great young player, but he’ll have to make some big plays today to win it.  Big Ben clearly has more weapons and experience to win this one late.
Pick: Steelers

Philadelphia at Arizona:

Antonio: Yes, I still don’t buy the 28th ranked defense suddenly having the light go on.  This is what I know, they’ve been lit up by most teams this year, and Kurt Warner can’t take pressure in his face.  The Eagles haven’t had a very good offensive week since they played the Browns.  I think they are due for a bit better offensive performance, especially on the ground.  Meanwhile, Warner will be hit, hit and hit again.  Sorry Cardinals, it is over.
Pick: Eagles

Kali: I still can’t get off my mind that 4 weeks ago my Redskins beat the Eagles 10-3.  But just like last year an NFC East team has gotten hot at the right time.  The Eagles defense has become the best in the NFC.  And McNabb is making just enough plays to get them some points.  I’ve picked against the Cardinals the last couple of weeks, but I figure the 3rd time is the charm.
Pick:  Philadelphia*

Disclaimer* I have decided that even though I picked Philly and Pittsburgh I’m actually cheering for Arizona and Baltimore.  Because Tony picked a Philly and Pittsburgh Super Bowl at the start of the season.  And the last thing I want is for him to be right.

The Divisional Playoffs are my favorite weekend of football.  Eight teams left, with the final goal just a few weeks away.

• Overtime Blues - After Indy fell to San Diego in overtime, the talk of revising the overtime format sparked up.  I can understand the frustration of watching your team work hard for 60 minutes and then after a coin flip the other team pulls the game out.  But the reality its, each team had four quarters to put the other team away.  It didn’t happen then.  Football is a physically demanding game.  Having a non sudden death playoff exposes players to numerous additional opportunities for injury.  Imagine for a second that the Ravens and Titans play a three overtime game?  Who would have any energy left to play someone the following week?  I’m not big on changing the format, although on the radio this week, I heard a fan bring up the idea that the kickoff is eliminated in overtime.  Meaning if you win the coin flip, the ball starts at the 20.  To me this is probably the most reasonable change I’ve heard.  The team receiving has to then gain a minimal 40-50 yards for a field goal attempt and that is clearly not a given.  With the regular kickoff return, teams often start around the 30, which is not nearly as challenging.
• BCS Championship – Congratulations to the Florida Gators for winning the BCS Championship.  I refuse to call this the National Championship, because the system really doesn’t provide an opportunity for underdogs to make a magical run.  Sure the NCAA Basketball championships, don’t produce mid-major champions, but the players do get the chance to go for it, and as evidenced by runs by Gonzaga, Davidson and George Washington, the underdogs do get a chance to knock off big teams and advance deep into the tournament.  I’m not advocating blowing up the Bowls and having a 16 team monster tournament.  But can we not figure out a way to have an 8 team tournament?  By the way, Tim Tebow is starting to win me over, as I’ve never bought into the hype.  But he does seem to be a special college player, although I feel Urban Meyer/Tim Tebow are the Mike D’Antoni/Steve Nash of college, although they actually won something.

Picks:

Last Week: Kali 2-2, Antonio 3-1
Overall: Antonio 53-40, Kali 52-41

Baltimore at Tennessee:

Kali: Over the last 6 weeks of the season the Titans were 3-3. Part of it was the fact that they rested their starters and didn’t have much to play for. But I think with the last couple of Super Bowl winners we’ve learned it makes sense to be playing well at the end of the season. This should be a defensive battle. And right now the Ravens defense looks like the best bet to score on its own.
Pick: Baltimore

Antonio: I really want to get off the Ravens bandwagon, and pick against them.  There has to be a point where the offense struggles to run the ball, and
they have to put the ball in Joe Flacco’s hands when the defense knows the Ravens have to pass.  The Titans similarly need to keep the Ravens best offensive weapon from touching the ball, Ed Reed.  If the Titans can do that, and force Flacco into a Travaris Jackson like game, then they will win this one.  But I can’t see it happening, he’s been too solid and the defense will make something happen.
Pick: Baltimore

Arizona at Carolina:

Antonio: Here comes the ugly Cardinals game.   I just see it happening.  Carolina will run all over them. I know we all thought Michael Turner would do that last week, and they stopped him, but I can’t buy the Cardinals defense stepping up twice in a row.  I think this will be the weekends’ one near blow out game.
Pick: Carolina

Kali: Arizona was leading Carolina 17-3 in the 3rd quarter in their earlier meeting this year. And then Carolina woke up and came back to win. I know Arizona beat Atlanta last week and did a good job with their rush defense. But that was without the worry of Steve Smith on the outside. Boldin, not being healthy also makes this a slightly easier game to pick.
Pick: Carolina

Philadelphia at NY Giants:

Antonio: My heart tells me Eagles, my mind tells me the Giants.  One thing I keep remembering though is that heading into this season, the Eagles appeared to be a very talented team capable of knocking out the defending champs.  Despite the mid-season offensive troubles, the team managed to get this far and I think their confidence is very high.  I look at the Giants and I see one glaring weakness, WR.  I’m sorry, I hear Giants fans talk about Domenik Hixon, but he’s been at best an average, slot receiver who happens to be starting.  The Eagles defense has been spectacular, and Assante Samuel seems to rise in the playoffs.
Pick: Eagles

Kali: Both teams won on at the other teams place earlier this year. Philadelphia has been “Hot” the last couple of weeks. But as I analyze their hot streak they have beaten a lot of suspect teams. And as bad as Tavaris Jackson played last week the Vikings were in that game until late. I expect the Giants will not allow Antonio Pierce to check Brian Westbrook one on one ever again. And a healthy Brandon Jacobs will make a huge difference he sets the physical tone for the Giants.
Pick: Giants

San Diego at Pittsburgh:

Kali: A lot of people are worried about the health of “Big Ben” going into this game. Me I’m not worried at all, because I think the Steelers have actually played better when Byron Leftwich has come in off then bench. I’m not saying start Leftwich, but I’m not worried if he has to come in a relief situation. This is a very similar situation with the Chargers. If LT is healthy they have to play him. But with him hurt they actually get to play their better running back, Sproles. But it doesn’t matter if it is a healthy LT or Sproles against the Steelers defense.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Antonio: San Diego is hot, red hot, and for some strange reason they are 2-0 in Pittsburgh in the playoffs despite being 0-13 there in the regular season.  Nothing more than a statistical anonomaly.  I think Pitt is the better team, and Rothelisberger had a nice break to prepare for this game.  Darren Sproles was great last week, but in a way they used him too much.  If he is also going to return kicks in this one, I fear he’ll breakdown.  The Steelers are too big, too physical and too determined.
Pick: Pittsburgh

End of Year Awards:

MVP – This award was back and forth all year.  From the first week of the season when the expected MVP Tom Brady went down.  At one point earlier this year it appeared that Kurt Warner was running away with the award.  Then the Cardinals tailed off or should I say basically collapsed down the stretch and limped into the playoffs.  Drew Brees had a historical passing season, but I can’t make you MVP if your team doesn’t make the playoffs or in his case end up in last place in their division.  So for me it came down between Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning.  I think Adrian Peterson and Brian Westbrook are the 2 most important players on their respective teams.  But at the beginning of the season the Colts looked like they were out of it.  They had injuries all over the team and age appeared to be catching up to them.  But then all of a sudden the rebounded and won 9 games in a row and ended up 12-4.  Some teams had better records than the Colts, but none had a player that made the difference more than Peyton Manning.
Winner:  Peyton Manning

Coach of the Year – A lot of first year coaches started off really well and had amazing seasons.  The turnaround in Miami led by Tony Sparano is incredible.  They were 1-15 last year and easily could’ve been 0-16.  But some of the credit for that turnaround has to be credited to Bill Parcells and Chad Pennington falling into their lap.  Bill Belichek actually probably did his best coaching job this year.  And this time without the help of taping teams.  To lose the league MVP in the first game of the season and play a quarterback who hadn’t started since high school to 11-5 is impressive.  But I’ve got to go down to Atlanta.  This was a franchise that lost a franchise quarterback and had a coach quit before the season was over by writing a note.  So Mike Smith had to not only find a new QB, but he had to rebuild a franchise that had been completely shattered.  And in his first season he led the Falcons to the playoffs.
Winner:  Mike Smith

Defensive Player of the Year – A lot of pass rushers had big years:  DeMarcus Ware, Joey Porter and James Harrison.  I for one believe that pass rusher is the 2nd most important position on a team next to QB.  A good to great pass rusher dictates so much of the game.  And of course Albert Haynesworth was at the center of the defensive effort down in Tennessee.  And amazingly all the years later you could still put Ray Lewis in the mix with his leadership and still making 10+ tackles a game.  But for me it’s all about Ed Reed.  No defensive player in the league is so feared not just for his big hits and interceptions.  But also because every time he touches the ball he is trying to score and a lot of times he does.  Ed Reed with the ball after an interception or a fumble is almost as scary as any of the best kick returners in the games.
Winner:  Ed Reed

Rookie of the Year - For most people it came down between the rookie QB’s, but I want to take a moment to compliment the seasons that Matt Forte and Chris Johnson had.  This is really impressive because both of those backs went over 1000 yards for teams that rely on the run.  And in both cases don’t have QB’s that put any fear into the defenses they faced.  So they had good season facing a lot of 8 man fronts.  Joe Flacco wasn’t even supposed to start and many of the defensive players for the Ravens weren’t happy in the beginning when he did.  But Flacco did everything that can be expected of a rookie QB and more.  The problem is Matt Ryan down in Atlanta did a little more and came into an even worse circumstance.  No one wants to talk about it but a lot of African-Americans in Atlanta were going to hate Ryan no matter what because of how they thought Mike Vick was treated.  And there was so much pressure on Matt Ryan coming into this season and he lived up and exceeded all expectations.
Winner:  Matt Ryan

Picks:

Regular Season Total:  Tie 50-39

Atlanta at Arizona

Kali: This game might not even be shown in Arizona, because they haven’t sold the game out yet.  That means even the fans of the Cardinals don’t believe in this team.  I’m always worried about a team that has Boldin and Fitzgerald because they can always go off and take over a game.  But I think Matt Ryan and Michael Turner limit their chances.
Pick:  Atlanta

Antonio: Atlanta has played well all season long, and been consistently solid.  Meanwhile the Cardinals have struggled down the stretch and if not for the fact they play in the NFL’s worst division they would have similarly blown division leads like the Jets and Broncos.  Turner should have little problem with the Cardinals D, but I think Warner and Company will have an easier time with the Falcons secondary.
Pick: Arizona

Indianapolis at San Diego:

Antonio: Teams like Indy with experience, momentum and a slew of championship caliber players are tough outs, even when on the road.  They clearly don’t have the offense they once did, especially running the ball.  The Chargers have played better, and Philip Rivers has grown up. But for the past year, the Colts have remembered how the Chargers came into their building and beat them ending their championship defense.
Pick: Indianapolis

Kali: I’m just not ready to believe in San Diego.  Two things give them a chance in the game Phillip Rivers and being at home.  Otherwise in their impressive late season run they really haven’t beaten anyone that impresses me.  I expect my league MVP to surgically take a part the Chargers and leave Norv Turner standing red faced as usual.
Pick:  Indianapolis

Baltimore at Miami

Kali: Nothing travels better on the road than defense.  And right now the Ravens might not have the #1 statistical defense but through my eyes there is no defense playing better right now.  And their running game has been gaining steam and even the passing game is becoming more impressive.  Baltimore is going to be a hard out in these playoffs.
Pick:  Baltimore

Antonio: I’ve been behind Baltimore all season long.  They run the ball well, and have a great defense.  Miami has similarly relied on their defense and running game, and do have an experience, accurate and smart QB in Chad Pennington (you know all the stuff Brett Farve is SUPPOSED to be).  In a matchup of first year head coaches, I’m going to take the coach with the most experienced team.  Of all the offenses and defenses in the playoffs, the Ravens D is by far the best individual unit.  And much like their Superbowl run, they have the ability to score themselves even if the offense struggles.
Pick: Baltimore

Philadelphia at Minnesota

Antonio: I like Minnesota, but I like Philly much better.  And not just because I’m an Eagles fan.  The Vikings can scare anyone with Adrian Peterson and nearly as effective Chester Taylor.  The Eagles though relish the challenge of playing against very good running backs.  They do a good job in those situations when the opposing offense struggles in the passing game.  I can’t imagine that the way Brian Dawkins and their talent laden secondary are playing, that the Vikings will succeed enough passing.  If the Eagles stick with the running game, and get Donovan McNabb on target, the Eagles should win this one.
Pick: Philadelphia

Kali: Let me think, Tavaris Jackson vs. Jim Johnson and his Eagles defense.  Yeah you guessed it I’m going with Jim Johnson.  I think he is going to do everything possible to take Adrian Peterson out of the game and put it in Jackson’s hands.  Right now I don’t think Jackson can handle that kind of game.  And the Eagles up and down offense will do enough to also keep the pressure on Tavaris Jackson.
Pick:  Philadelphia